What’s the most important metric in GDP report on Friday?
Caroline Baum tweets that it’s private final demand, the slowest in three years, excluding the first quarter of 2016.
Real Final Sales to Private Domestic Purchaser
Ever Weakening Real Final Demand
A slightly different metric better highlights ever-weakening demand.
Real Final Sales of Domestic Product % Change From Year Ago
I downloaded that data into an Excel spreadsheet capturing the yearly high for each year since 1950.
Real Final Sales of Domestic Product – Yearly Highs Since 1950
This is an ominous looking trend.
Real final sales of domestic product compared to the previous year trend lower as deficit spending and Fed printing rise.