The Japanese Yen has been on quite the move lately. We see that on the 1-week chart, the USD/JPY has broken out significantly to the downside, and the directional movement indicators have diverged sharply.
USD/JPY:
For this reason, I will be keeping my eyes on the JPY over the coming weeks. Given the timing of the breakout, the USD could well have more downside against this currency in the near term.
The Japanese Yen appears to be acting as a safety play at this point in time. With global markets in significant decline and 2015 having been a mediocre year for the equity market, there appears to be a “flight to safety” taking place and the JPY is retaking its position as a safe haven currency.
I was previously quite bearish on the yen and did not expect the currency to regain significantly. With low oil prices making it cumbersome for the Bank of Japan to counteract deflation, along with a need to expand quantitative easing measures to counteract sluggish domestic growth, the yen was all but sure to remain low.
In this context, the rise in the yen relative to the USD and indeed other currencies has been driven by speculation, rather than market forces. Indeed, moves by the Bank of Japan to further expand quantitative easing would have been expected to have the opposite effect of keeping the currency lower.
In my view, the extent of the bullish run in the JPY directly depends on market sentiment over the remainder of the month. Should market contagion gain in intensity, then recent moves would indicate that the Japanese Yen will continue its breakout. On the other hand, a pickup in market sentiment could even mean a sudden reversal, given that the fundamentals of the Japanese economy are still quite weak.
In any event, this is one currency I will be watching closely.