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Is Sterling Headed For A Test Of 1.44?

Published 04/11/2016, 08:06 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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DXY
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The last week was relatively unspectacular for traders, as both major currency pairs followed a sideways trend, and the price development remained moderate with no huge fluctuations. We now hope for fresh momentum this week and will pay particular attention to the British pound, which might be vulnerable to an upswing. This assumption proved correct and we were already able to gain a nice profit with today’s long entry.

Tuesday's Consumer Price report will be important to watch for sterling traders, and if CPI data surprise to the upside, we could see sterling rallying towards 1.4255 and even 1.43. The Bank of England will announce its rate decision on Thursday, but as long as no changes are expected the monetary policy decision is considered to be a non-event for traders.

GBP/USD

The pair recently traded within a 100-pip range between 1.4140 and 1.4040, but looking at the daily chart we see that after a test of 1.40 the pair refrained from trading any lower, and recovered its losses towards the upper end of its recent trading range. With a break above 1.4175, bullish momentum may increase, sending the pound towards higher targets. In case of a sustained upward correction, the pound could even head for a test of 1.44. However, looking for a revival of the downtrend, we will wait for prices below 1.4040 and 1.3985.
GBP/USD Daily Chart

In the latter part of this week the focus belongs to the U.S. dollar and important data releases such as U.S. Retail Sales (Wednesday), CPI data (Thursday) and Michigan Confidence (Friday). Depending on the data the greenback may regain some strength, but the performance will mainly hinge on investors' risk appetite for dollars. The main focus remains on the Fed's guidance, and with no new insights into the trajectory of interest rate hikes, the USD could receive little attention.

From the Eurozone there are no important data releases scheduled for this week. The EUR/USD traded boringly sideways between 1.1450 and 1.1330, and as long as investors' risk appetite for this pair remains muted, we expect price movements to be limited until 1.1460 and 1.15 on the upside, and 1.1330 and 1.13 on the downside.

Here are our daily signal alerts:

EUR/USD
Long at 1.1436 SL 25 TP 20, 50
Short at 1.1380 SL 25 TP 20, 40
GBP/USD
Long at 1.4175 SL 25 TP 20, 55
Short at 1.4085 SL 25 TP 20, 50

We wish you good trades and many pips!

Disclaimer: Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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