AUD/NZD" title="AUD/NZD" name="Picture 1" align="bottom" border="0" height="287" width="602">
The AUD/NZD pair has looked very active over the last couple of days, especially with the upcoming NZ interest rate rise which is due out soon. Its impact in reality has already been priced in for a lot of market makers and traders, nevertheless it's important to note that with an interest rate rise, we tend to get capital inflows and see a stronger dollar, especially when comparing to another economy like Australia - which is struggling at the moment and unlikely to lift rates anytime soon.
The sudden interest is set to peak more so overnight, as traders look set to jump in and set up positions in the NZD/USD cross and of course the AUD/NZD cross, which is the focus of my article. While the NZD/USD will likely jump, it's unlikely to be sustained. The AUD/NZD though, is likely to be sustained and be pushed lower. It’s currently trending lower and it's not close to historic lows seen a few months ago. It certainly looks likely that the next wave is coming downwards.
The recent reports out of Australia are of a weaker economy, and the RBA is waiting to hit the bottom of the cycle. It seems that Australia is still in for a rocky ride while across the ditch, New Zealand is looking very strong and is seeing solid economic data every week, including the 25 basis point rise tomorrow which will catapult the currency forward against the Aussie dollar. This divergence of the two economies can clearly be seen in the currency when you look at the trade weighted index.
Looking at the AUD/NZD technically, we can see the rectangle pattern which has formed and we can clearly see that it has dropped down further after going through the motions of a slight consolidation. Watch closely the trend downwards, it is looking strong with a bearish trend line starting to form.
Resistance levels can be found at 1.0548 and 1.0491 and are likely to come under heavy pressure in the coming 24 hours. Support is likely to be dynamic and the bearish trend line will most likely take on that role.
While traders should look to catch the shorting opportunities, it's worth noting that markets will unlikely touch parity. I say this as both governments would likely strong jaw the AUD/NZD if they felt this was a threat - which was what the finance minister in NZ did the last time it hit a serious low in January.
Whatever the movement of the currency pair tomorrow, I certainly am looking forward to the update from the central bank and their guidance on future interest rate rises. But more importantly, I will be watching to see how low the AUD/NZD can go.