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How High Can The Euro Go?

Published 11/02/2016, 07:44 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM
EUR/USD
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GBP/USD
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DX
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The U.S. dollar came under increased selling pressure amid mounting anxiety in the run-up to next week's presidential election. Odds of a win for Clinton have recently fallen and a Trump victory is poison for the financial markets as it would lead to uncertainty and a surge in market volatility. The euro benefited as a safe haven and broke above the 1.1050-barrier on the back of a weakening dollar. The question now is how high the euro might go? Let's have a brief look at the technical picture:

EUR/USD
The solid bull candles in the daily chart suggest further upward movement in the short-term. While we see a next major resistance at 1.1120, an extended move towards 1.1240 is also entirely possible. The currency pair might struggle to overcome the 1.1150-mark but in case it breaks above that level we may see a run for 1.12 and 1.1240. However, if the euro falls back below 1.0950 the bias shifts in favor of the bears.


EUR/USD Daily Chart

GBP/USD
The British pound ended the trading day virtually unchanged against the greenback and remained stuck around the 1.2250-level. Whether the short break above 1.2275 was a false breakout of the pound's current trading range remains to be seen and hinges on the dollar's permanence. Nevertheless, the technical picture appears to be somewhat bullish with buyers waiting for a renewed break above 1.2275. If this break occurs we could see a small relief rally towards 1.23 and 1.2330. Above 1.2350 however, a next resistance is seen at 1.2450. Sterling bears should however wait for a break below 1.2190 in order to anticipate further downward momentum.
GBP/USD 4 Hour Chart

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The Federal Reserve announces its monetary policy decision today at 18:00 UTC but no changes are expected. The FOMC rate decision could thus take a back seat to politics and the wrangling about the presidential candidates.

Traders should also keep an eye on the ADP report, due at 12:15 UTC which could affect the U.S. dollar. Furthermore, the German Unemployment figures are scheduled for release at 8:55 UTC while sterling traders should pay some attention to the U.K. Construction PMI at 9:30 UTC.

Here are our daily signal alerts:

EUR/USD
Long at 1.1075 SL 25 TP 30-40
Short at 1.1020 SL 25 TP 25, 50

GBP/USD
Long at 1.2260 SL 25 TP 30, 60
Short at 1.2210 SL 25 TP 30, 50

We wish you good trades and many pips!
Disclaimer: Any and all liability of the author is excluded.

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