Gold for Wednesday, January 22, 2015
Gold has enjoyed a very solid last few weeks which has continued in the last couple of days as it has surged to a five month high above $1300, before easing back a little in the last half day. To start this week it has just eased back a little and steadied below the $1280 level after surging to that area and a four month high recently. In the last few weeks it has been able to rally strongly from around $1170 back through the key $1200 level and to a 12 week high just above the $1240 level before its further surge higher in the last week. Despite this recent break, the $1240 level remains key as it has provided plenty of resistance over the last few months and is now likely to play a role should gold retreat back to it. At the beginning of last month gold eased lower away from the resistance level at $1240 yet again back down to below $1200. During the second half of November gold made repeated runs at the resistance level at $1200 failing every time, before finally breaking through strongly.
Throughout the first half of November gold enjoyed a strong resurgence back to the key $1200 level where it has met stiff resistance up until recently. Throughout the second half of October gold fell very strongly and resumed the medium term down trend falling from above $1250 back down through the key $1240 level, down below $1200 to a multi-year low near $1130. It spent a few days consolidating around $1160 after the strong fall which has allowed it to rally higher in the last couple of weeks.
Earlier in October gold ran into the previous key level at $1240, however it also managed to surge higher to a five week high at $1255. In late August gold enjoyed a resurgence as it moved strongly higher off the support level at $1275, however it then ran into resistance at $1290. In the week prior, gold had been falling lower back towards the medium term support level at $1290 however to finish out last week it fell sharply down to the previous key level at $1275.
Gold fell below $1,300 an ounce on Wednesday as worries about the global economy cooled after various reports offered details about the European Central Bank’s planned bond buying program. European Central Bank is planning to announce a 50 billion euros ($58.3 billion) a month quantitative easing (QE) program, sources with knowledge of the situation confirmed to CNBC on Wednesday. The potential size of the program was previously seen around 600 billion euros ($690 billion), according to a Reuters poll. Spot gold hit its highest level since Aug. 18 at $1,303.20 an ounce in early trade and was last down 0.4 percent at $1,288 an ounce. U.S. gold futures for delivery in February declined 0.5 percent to $1,288 an ounce. It reached $1,307 an ounce, its highest level since August 15, earlier.
Gold January 21 at 22:35 GMT 1293.3 H: 1305.7 L: 1284.6
Gold Technical
| S3 | S2 | S1 | R1 | R2 | R3 |
| 1200 | 1170 | 1130 | 1300 | — | — |
During the early hours of the Asian trading session on Thursday, gold is trading in a narrow range around $1293 after easing back from the five month high above $1300. Current range: trading right below $1295 around $1293.
Further levels in both directions:
• Below: 1200, 1170 and 1130.
• Above: 1300.
OANDA’s Open Position Ratios
(Shows the ratio of long vs. short positions held for gold among all OANDA clients. The left percentage (blue) shows long positions; the right percentage (orange) shows short positions.)
The long position ratio for gold has moved back above 50% as it has surged to a five month high near $1300 in the last day or so. The trader sentiment is ever so slightly in favour of long positions.
Economic Releases
- 09:00 EU Flash Composite PMI (Jan)
- 09:00 EU Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
- 09:00 EU Flash Services PMI (Jan)
- 09:30 UK Public Borrowing (PSNB ex interventions) (Dec)
- 10:00 EU Flash Consumer Sentiment (Jan)
- 12:45 EU ECB – Interest Rates
- 13:30 US Initial Claims (17/01/2014)
- 14:00 US FHFA House Price Index (Nov)
- 14:45 US Flash Manufacturing PMI (Jan)
- EU ECB’s Draghi gives press conference after interest rate announcement
- JP BoJ Publish Monthly Report