Long-term trend: Bearish/Neutral
Intermediate-term trend: Bullish
Short-term trend: Bullish
Very short-term trend: Bullish
Since making a low at 1045 in November, gold has rallied powerfully, breaking through all of the intermediate-term downtrend lines and all of the closely watched moving averages, including the 200-week moving average at 1258.
It is our view that the bear market in gold is now over, and we expect this rally in gold to eventually reach the 1520 level that acted as strong support during the topping process in 2011-2013.
Our strategy since the price broke above the October highs at 1190 has been to switch to a “long only” trading stance after three years of trading predominantly short.
The fact that gold has continued to rally in the face of recovering equity markets is very encouraging, and supports our view that a new gold bull run is underway.
Oil remains weak near $40 a barrel, though has rallied substantially from the lows below $30 a barrel, tracking equities higher in recent trading despite a continuing glut of supply.
Support can be found at 1262, 1258, 1250, 1240, 1230, 1211, 1200, 1192, 1181, 1169, 1156, 1128, 1113 and 1107. The recent break of 1262 is very bullish for gold and suggests a rally to 1295 in the first instance.
Resistance can be found at 1280, 1295, 1307, 1322, 1346, 1390 and 1424. Gold is approaching the 2015 highs at 1307 and is looking strong.
Today's video for subscribers looks at the recent trading in more detail and our strategy for today's trading session.