Global trade developments with a dose of healthy demand appear to be setting the stage for grain-oriented electrical steel (GOES) price movements for H2.
Although the big story in the U.S. involves Section 232 developments, GOES prices globally are increasing because of several measures in both China and Europe.
According to a recent TEX Report, Japanese mills received a $100/metric ton increase for GOES shipments to India and Southeast Asia. And, because of an anti-dumping order in China, Baoshan has raised its prices six times this year.
Curiously, the European Union implemented a system by which a “price floor” has been established for GOES. This price, according to TEX Report, is higher than the international GOES price. Europe can expect to see higher-priced imports as a result.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Commerce has not released any recommendations on the Section 232 investigation. Although GOES producer AK Steel — along with other steel producers — has lobbied hard for some sort of import curb, the fact that no recommendations have been made suggests the DOC acknowledges that the Section 232 investigation contains a number of complexities across a broad range of stakeholders that have all weighed in on the findings.
The Section 232 investigation, to some extent, has slowed down annual negotiating cycles for manufacturing organizations, as several recently told MetalMiner at our 2018 Budgeting and Forecasting workshop.
Producers had likely hoped for the release of the findings to take their price cues. MetalMiner believes that without the release of the report, producers will start considering 2018 contracts in September, similar to normal annual contract cycles.
by Lisa Reisman