• UK is the star of the show, other advanced economies also good
• Asia/Pacific is the weakest link
The crisis in emerging markets earlier this year, a slowdown in China, and the commotion in Ukraine have so far not inflicted much damage on global manufacturing. While our gauge inched down to 52.8 in April* from 53 in March, it continues to point to robust growth in global manufacturing.
The country-specifics reveal that the advanced economies in the US and Europe are doing well. UK tops the leader board having climbed to 57.3 in April from 55.8 a month earlier, but the US too is high up the list at 54.9. The much maligned euro area is not far behind at 53.4, and neither are Switzerland nor the Nordic countries doing too shabbily.
Weakness, in other words, is to be found in other parts of the world, mainly in Asia/Pacific. China continues its flirt with the 50 level, which separates expansion from contraction, a year-long relationship, while Japan dropped into "negative" territory at 49.4, the first sub-50 print since February 2013. However, in the case of Japan we have to remember that a hike in the consumption tax to 8 percent from 5 percent took place on April 1, which has probably distorted a broader part of the economy than just retail sales. Australia continues its run of poor form dropping to 47.4 suffering from weaker growth in China.
Overall, the slight tick down in our global PMI manufacturing tracker to 52.8 from 53 (average of 53 year-to-date) does not alter my view that the global economy will pick up pace this year and grow close to 3 percent from around 2 percent in 2013.