Weekly Technical Analysis For June 25th to 29th, 2018
EUR/USD: The EUR/USD pair dropped to the 1.1531 key support level and then bounced back up above 1.1607 last week. Last Friday, President Trump stated that if tariffs by the EU on the US are not broken down then the US will place 20% tariff rates on their auto sector. Trade tensions are growing between the US and its top trading partners for now.
In the upcoming week, watch out for US Final GDP growth and PCE Price Index. The first-quarter GDP is expected to the annualized growth rate come out at 2.2% as the same as previous number. On the other hand, Core PCE Prices are expected to rise 1.9%, compared to a 1.8%-increase in the preceding month. A higher than the expected reading would support the US dollar.
Additionally, among this week's US data on CB consumer confidence and durable goods orders will be important.
If we look at the eurozone area; Flash CPI inflation will be closely followed by traders. It is expected to rise to 2.0% from 1.9% the previous number.
As long as the price stays above the major support level of 1.1607, on a daily basis, the euro may gain more value versus the greenback. At this point, we will see 1.1720 and 1.1812 as resistance levels. Although, if the price falls back below 1.1607, the next support level can be found at 1.1531.
Support: 1.1607 - 1.1531 - 1.1446
Resistance: 1.1720 – 1.1812 – 1.1884
GBP/USD: Bank of England votes 6-3 to hold interest rate from the previous 7-2 last Thursday. BoE said that Q1 slowdown was temporary. The pound jumped after a BoE rate decision.
Looking ahead, we will focus on UK first-quarter economic growth. On a year-over-year basis, it is expected to come out at 1.2%, unchanged from an initial estimate.
The GBP/USD pair jumped up from 1.3152 and then closed last week above 1.3241. As long as the price stays above 1.3241, on a daily basis, the upward movement may continue and we will watch resistance levels at 1.3338 and 1.3447. On the other hand, if the price drops below 1.3241, the next support level will be at 1.3152
Support: 1.3241 – 1.3152- 1.3050
Resistance: 1.3338 – 1.3447 – 1.3536
USD/JPY: The USD/JPY pair closed last week above the 109.90 key support level. As long as the price stays above 109.90 on a four hourly basis, we might see upward movement and we will follow 110.86 and 111.66 as resistance levels. On the other hand, if the price breaks down below 109.90, the next daily support level is holding at 109.35.
Support: 109.90 - 109.35 – 108.78
Resistance: 110.86 - 111.66 - 112.46
Gold: The gold price has extended losses last week. As long as the price trades below 1272, on a four-hour basis, the bearish action is most likely dominate and we will see support levels at 1265 and 1256. On the other hand, if the price moves up above 1272, the next daily resistance level can be found at 1276.
Support: 1265 - 1256 - 1249
Resistance: 1272 - 1276 - 1283