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FX Weekly: EUR/USD Ranges, Trade Levels, USD/JPY Weekly Trade

ByBrian Twomey
Published 02/27/2022, 04:37 AM
Updated 09/03/2023, 03:41 AM

Currency markets begin the week oversold

NZD/CHF closed at 0.6214 and the vital average is located at 0.6214. A price close on an average nullifies the statistics to the average which means NZD/CHF begins the week at perfect neutral. This is a 1 in 1 million occurrence and may never be seen again.

EUR/GBP traded from 0.8200 to 0.8600’s for the past 6 months while EUR/USD held an 1.1100 to 1.1400 range or 300 pips for the past 3 months. USD/CHF traded 300 pips from 0.9300’s to 0.9000 for the past 8 months.

USD/CAD, AUD/USD and USD/JPY traded 400 pips for the past 3 months and 300 pips for NZD/USD and 400 pips for NZD/JPY. GBP/JPY traded 900 pips within the past 3 months and a breakout while GBP/JPY held 148.00 to 158 for the past year.

AUD/JPY, EUR/CAD, GBP/CHF and EUR/JPY traded a 600 pip range for the past 3 months. EUR/AUD traded 700 pips in 3 months and 900 pips in 6 months. GBP/AUD and CAD/JPY 8 and 500 pip ranges in 3 months and 700 for GBP/CAD.

GBP/NZD traded 1100 pips in 3 months and 800 pips for EUR/NZD.

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S&P 500 And Commodities

  • SPX 500 traded 700 points in 3 months, 500 points in the prior 3 months. On a 3 month basis, SPX trades 4 to 500 point ranges since last November.
  • DXY matches SPX and traded 300 pips for the past 3 months, 500 pips for the prior 3 months and 400 for the next 3 months.
  • Gold traded barely 300 points in 3 months, 200 points in the prior 3 months. For the past year, gold runs 2 and 300 points per 3 months.
  • WTI oil traded 38 points in the past 3 months, 20 points in the prior 3 months then 13 points in the next prior 3 months. For the past year, WTI traded 48 points or 4 points per month.

Currency prices fairly consistent to trade 300 and 600 point ranges since 2016 market changes

EUR/USD for example from October 2012 to Dec traded 800 pips, 1100 pips in each of the prior 3 months and 800 for the first quarter of 2012. Markets in 2012 were consistent to trade above levels as normal.

EUR/USD 3 month ranges in 2015 doubled from 2012 as the ECB fully embarked on negative interest rates and EUR broke its 10 year average at 1.3200’s.

The current period of trade is dead yet normal and consistent, but miles below historic range movements.

The Week

EUR/USD leads the way this week to target 1.1369 and 1.1387. The rising 5 year average at 1.1533 targets 1.1105. Last week, EUR/USD traded to exactly 1.1105. The line at 1.1533 is rising which means 1.1105 will rise.

Overbought NZD/USD and AUD/USD trade near 5 year averages at 0.7292 and 0.6827.

JPY cross pairs contain about 100 pip more downside.

GBP/USD vital points for the week are located at 1.3188, 1.3285, 1.3383, 1.3449, 1.3543 and 1.3601. GBP/USD held a consistent and known range over many months.

GBP/NZD will lead EUR/NZD higher this week. EUR/AUD will lead GBP/AUD higher. EUR/AUD is oversold by about 200 pips.

USD/CAD 1.2835 and 1.2859 as big breaks and no change since last week.

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USD/JPY Weekly Trade

Weekly trade last week as posted Sunday: Short 115.57 and 115.64 to target 114.76. Or Short below 114.40 to target 113.67. USD/JPY lifted from 114.40 and traded to 115.68 then to 115.14.

Allow credit for 115.57 and 115.64 to achieve its destination. To traders short at 115.64, profit was 50 pips. Day trade profits were extra pips and won’t count to weekly trade totals.

For last week as 13, count is zero pips but week 14 begins at +1738 pips.

USD/JPY short 115.82 and 115.95 to target 114.91. Long 114.91 to target 115.30.

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