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DXY traded to 101.99 lows last week. As written, every week since the DXY topped at 114.00’s in September, DXY not only contains miles of downside but above averages were built into DXY’s price every 100-ish pips to prevent USD and DXY rises. This week is no different as the above averages begin at 102.95, 103.29, and 103.80 and travel every 100 pips to 109.00’s.
From DXY’s close at 102.18, the next vital points are 77 pips to 102.95 and 111 pips to 103.29. DXY is on its way to challenging the 50-year average at 96.00s and five years at 95.00 or 500 more downside pips.
The question of when DXY challenges 96.00’s is a time factor as Time = distance divided by speed. An example was previously calculated for USD/JPY on January 10th at USD/JPY 131.75 and target at 128.81 or 294 pips.
Time = Distance divided by speed or Distance = speed X time. Total 294 pips from 131.75 or 50 pips per day = 6 days,
At 25 pips per day = 12 days, and At ten pips per day = 30 days. USD/JPY traded 294 pips to the 128.81 targets in 3 days.
DXY at 50, 25, and 10 pips per day offers ten days, 20 days, and 50 days. The time factor is a basic synopsis of the time to hold trades to target.
As always, past and future trades require pen, paper, and a calculator rather than charts, indicators, and fibs, as charts and indicator tools severely limit profits by late entries and short-sighted targets.
From DXY downside and limited ability to travel higher, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, NZD and AUD remain married to long-only strategies.
EUR/USD trades a 380 pip range from 1.0486 to 1.0866. A break above 1.0866 targets the range from 1.0866 to 1.1116 and target 1.0001. EUR/USD from 1.0486 trades deeply overbought, and a sustained price above 1.0866 increases a new trend. The big lines for the week above 1.0866 is located at 1.0917 and 1.0969. Lower targets for the week are found at low 1.0700;s.
USD/JPY trades a current range from 125.36 to 135.12. A break at 125.36 targets 122.00’s, and the short-term range is from 125.36 to 119.34. USD/JPY’s more extensive range is located from 112.00’s to 135.00’s. USD/JPY trades massive oversold from 135.00’s and overbought from 112.00;s.
Overall, JPY's trade strategy is short only. The problem with JPY cross pairs is leader GBP/JPY as a refreshing break exists this week at 156.13. Below targets the range from 156.13 to 153.50, then 152.80. Above 156.13 targets the more extensive range from 161.85 to 156.13.
GBP/JPY corresponds to not being oversold or overbought but as a currency pair without direction or purpose. EUR/JPY serves as JPY cross pair leader to replace GBP/JPY due to EUR/JPY’s price emerging as the same as USD/JPY. GBP/JPY becomes the currency to follow EUR/JPY and USD/JPY.
GBP/JPY goes short this week from 157.00’s too high to 158.00’s. CAD/JPY trades from 95.29 to 100.63. Below 95.29 targets the range from 95.29 to 91.34, then 90.18, and targets 94.29.
EUR/JPY trades from 141.02 and 141.54 to 135.26. Below 135.26 targets the range from 135.26 to 131.82 and the target at 134.38. EUR/JPY’s more extensive range trades from 129.84 to 141.02 and 141.54. Similar to USD/JPY, 141.00’s trades from massive oversold to deeply overbought at 129.00’s.
For the week, we’re short as EUR/JPY is the preferred trade among JPY cross pairs. AUD/USD trades 0.6784, 0.6967, and 0.7129. The larger range is established from 0.7600s to 0.6784. From 0.7600’s is oversold from 0.6900’s while 0.6784 is overbought.
GBP/USD has no difference from past weeks as the range is from 1.1988 to 1.2539. GBP/USD at 1.2200’s is dead center at 1.1988 and 1.2531 on a range trade strategy for longs at 1.2100’s and shorts at 1.2300’s.
EUR/NZD’s range ranges from 1.6905 to 1.7257 or 1.6905 to 1.6832 and 1.6802. EUR/NZD is clearly the better trade to GBP/NZD.
GBP/AUD’s big break for higher prices is found at 1.7675 and current oversold below 1.7540. The strategy is long all week from any price at 1.7400s to target middle to upper 1.7500s. Continue the strategy all week.
EUR/AUD break for lower at 1.5459 targets 1.5300’s on a short-only strategy.
Lower EUR/CAD must break 1.4496, 1.4488, and 1.4477 to target the range from 1.4257 to 1.4477. EUR/CAD’s ten and 5-year average at 1.4585 and 1.4788 is just ahead of the current price at 1.4502.
GBP/CAD ranges from 1.6448 to 1.6787 or 1.6448 to 1.6101. Nothing special to GBP/CAD except a long-only strategy to target 1.6567 and the break at 1.6448.
USD/CAD next break lower is located at 1.3142 to target 1.3117. Any price at 1.3400s is open to shorts to the first target of 1.3283, then 1.3240.
NZD/USD from the close at 0.6380, trades overbought inside the range from 0.6242 to 0.6458. Above 0.6458 targets 0.6574, and the new range at 0.6458 to 0.6629.
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