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France Loses AAA Sovereign Rating At Moody's

Published 11/20/2012, 06:44 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM
BOJ keeps policy and assessment unchanged

Economic Data

(JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) LEAVES TARGET RATE RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.0-0.1%, AS EXPECTED; MAINTAINS ASSET PURCHASE PROGRAM AT ¥91T; MAINTAINS ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT

(JP) JAPAN SEPT ALL INDUSTRY ACTIVITY INDEX M/M: -0.3% V -0.5%E

(CN) CHINA OCT ACTUAL FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT (FDI) Y/Y: -0.2% v +0.1%E; YTD: -3.5% V -3.8% PRIOR

(AU) AUSTRALIA SEPT CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING INDEX: -0.3% V -0.8% PRIOR

(KR) SOUTH KOREA Q3 EXTERNAL SHORT-TERM DEBT: $132.6B V $140.7B PRIOR

Markets Snapshot (as of 05:00GMT)
Nikkei225 +0.1%

S&P/ASX +0.6%

Kospi +0.6%

Shanghai Composite -0.3%

Hang Seng +0.8%

Dec S&P500 -0.1% at 1,381

Dec gold -0.1% at $1,733/oz

Jan Crude Oil -0.3% at $89.05/brl

Notes/Observations
Moody's cuts France sovereign rating one notch to AA1 from AAA; Outlook Negative. Among the drivers, citing: 1) risk to economic growth; 2) elevated uncertainty with respect to France's fiscal outlook; 3) diminishing predictability of the country's resilience to future euro area shocks. Fitch remains the last of 3 major agencies to rate France at AAA.

BOJ keeping policy unchanged after two consecutive months of easing; Asset purchase program remains at ¥91T; Economic assessment still sees "Japan's economy has been weakening somewhat... Exports and industrial production decreased mainly due to slowdown in overseas economies." BOJ also reiterating y/y change in CPI expected to remain around 0%.

RBA meeting minutes leave the door open to more policy easing. See Nov hold as a result of inflation data being higher than expected and signs of China economy stabilizing. RBA also noted Europe is still weak and terms of trade expected to fall some 15% in 2012 from their peak in 2011.

Fixed Income/Commodities
(CN) China Iron and Steel Association (CISA): China Nov 1st-10th avg daily crude steel production at 1.957M, +1.6% from Oct 21st-31st

SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings fall to 9,894 tons from 9,940 tons (lowest since 9,893 tons on Oct 25th)

GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 0.4 tons to 1,342.2.3 tons (first decline since Nov 14th)

Currencies
Euro fell about 50pips below $1.2770 following Moody's downgrade of France before paring much of those losses late in the day. Analysts suggesting some of the focus on France by the rating agencies was priced in to the markets.

AUD/USD traded down about 20pips following RBA meeting minutes after the central bank indicated the door remains open to easing.

USD/JPY traded in a 25pip range with session lows just ahead of the BOJ policy decision that saw the central bank keep asset purchase program unchanged. Analysts still expect BOJ to ease more aggressively, but some indicate the central bank may be awaiting the outcome of the Dec 16th general elections.

(CN) China's CNY currency (Yuan) again hits the upper limit of its daily 1.0% range on OTC market at 6.2297

Speakers/Political/In the Papers
(CN) China PBoC's Zhou: China to push ahead with interest rate reform

(CN) PBoC Dep Gov Pan Gongsheng: Capital flows are pressuring emerging markets - Chinese press

(CN) Four China govt surveillance ships briefly entered into Japan's territorial waters near disputed Senkaku islands - financial press

(CN) Chinese press report calling for expansion of property tax trials

(JP) Japan PM Noda: Opposes the call by LDP leader Abe for BOJ to underwrite govt bonds - Nikkei News

(JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Secy Fujimura: Govt to spend ¥1T in the second round of stimulus

(KR) South Korea Ministry of Knowledge Economy: Oct industrial electricity sales fell 1.5% y/y to 20.8B kwh - Korean press

(US) Fed's Lacker (voter, hawk): Sees deal to avert 'fiscal cliff'

(FR) France Fin Min Moscovici: France debt remains among the most liquid and solid in eurozone, and France economy is large and diversified

Asia Equities
RIO: CEO: Sees step up in China demand for products incl aluminium, copper and iron ore - financial press

VAH.AU: Sees improved FY13 pretax profit compared to prior FY12 - financial press

SYD.AU: Reports Oct passenger figures +6.4% y/y

TM: Toyota and Nissan seen increasing their promotions at the upcoming China Auto Show that opens on Friday - Nikkei News

JFE Holdings 5411.JP: Merger with IHI postponed for 3rd time because of delays in clearance through China antitrust authorities - Nikkei News

US Equities
NUAN: Reports Q4 $0.51 adj v $0.48e, R$468.8M v $496Me; -4.3% afterhours

A: Reports Q4 $0.86 v $0.80e, R$1.77B v $1.76Be; -1.4% afterhours

BRCD: Reports Q4 $0.17 v $0.14e, R$578M v $566Me; -0.9% afterhours

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