The beginning of the year was marked by two major events: the vote on the new constitution and the formation of a technocratic government. Although the route to elections finally seems to be opening up, they are unlikely to come until the second half of 2014. In the meantime, the transitional government faces some major challenges, particularly on the social front, against a background of weak growth and limited financing room for manoeuvre. In such difficult conditions, the country is likely to receive strong support from the international community, unless the commitments made on reforms are not fulfilled.
Political prospects start to improve
Three years after the collapse of the government of President Ben Ali, the political transition took a major step forward on 26 January 2014, with the ratification by the National Constituent Assembly (NCA) of the new constitution. Soon afterwards, the new Prime Minister, Mehdi Jomaa, formed his technocratic government. The previous coalition, dominated by the Islamist Ennahda Movement, had agreed to leave office some six weeks earlier in a bid to end the crisis that had paralysed the country since the assassination of MP Mohammed Brahmi on July 2013.
Tunisia has thus adopted a constitution which the international community has unanimously praised for its modernity. More importantly, this stage marks the desire for consensus between various players on the political scene and in civil society, despite the climate being scarred by considerable mistrust between Islamists and their opponents. In this, Tunisia sets itself apart from the other countries in the region affected by the “Arab spring”. Holding legislative and presidential elections will represent the final stage of political transition. No calendar has been set so far, but it is highly likely that elections will be held in the second half of this year, raising hopes that the creation of stable institutions will produce a significant improvement in the political situation.
In the meantime, the new government faces immense challenges, particularly on the social front, whilst the economy is struggling to recover and the security situation has deteriorated significantly. On top of this there is the problem of the budget deficit, whose expansion over the last two years has taken a worrying turn.
BY Stéphane ALBY