It’s been a game of nerves for Facebook’s investors this year.
The stock is trading near an all-time high after a tumultuous start to the year. Shares sank in mid-March amid a wave of extremely negative developments that raised doubts about the future of this social media giant.
Riding successfully through analysts’ downgrades, the intense scrutiny by regulators following the Cambridge Analytica scandal and the “delete Facebook” campaign, Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) is back in the game. Investors will get another glimpse of how the company is coping with these negative pressures when the it releases its second-quarter earnings report after the market close on Wednesday.
The consensus at the Street shows another blowout quarter, with revenue rising to $13.35 billion, up from $9.32 billion in the year-ago period, and adjusted earnings per share rising to $1.71 from $1.59.
We see some risks to the valuation that could come from increased regulation around the management of its user data. But overall, we remain convinced that Facebook will overcome these challenges and its stock still has a lot of room to run.
Instagram and WhatsApp Will Be the Big Guns
So far, there has been no evidence that shows that controversies, such as the spread of fake news, Russian interference in the U.S. elections and the Cambridge Analytica scandal, have prompted advertisers to divert ad dollars.
Facebook remains the dominant force in social media. Companies can’t afford to ignore it. With the maturing Facebook platform in North America, CEO Mark Zuckerberg has many drivers that will continue to fuel growth over the long term.
Instagram reached 1 billion monthly active users in June. This platform is attracting new users faster than Facebook’s main site and is on track to exceed 2 billion users within the next five years. With a younger audience, Instagram is much more attractive to advertisers.
And the contribution of Instagram to Facebook’s revenue has been stunning during the past few quarters. Instagram could make up about 16% of Facebook’s revenue over the next year, up from 10.6% last year, according to eMarketer data cited by Bloomberg Intelligence. Facebook doesn't separate Instagram revenue contribution in its financial statements.
Another property that is ripe to contribute to Facebook’s bottom line is its highly popular WhatsApp messaging application, which has more than 1.5 billion users. In an announcement early this year, WhatsApp said it would begin allowing business accounts for the first time, a step that lays the groundwork for this free service to start making money for its parent.
Still a Tremendous Growth Story
The recent performance of Facebook suggests that the worst is over. As we have said in our earlier articles, there may be some more negative surprises, especially when the company is still in the middle of a major restructuring and many governments are still contemplating ways to strengthen online privacy regulation.
But that shouldn’t discourage long-term investors to hold this tremendous growth stock in their portfolio. Facebook has a lot of firepower to deal with these temporary setbacks.