EUR/USD: Dollar steadied after comments from Fed
Macroeconomic overview: Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Robert Kaplan said on Monday that he would support further interest rate hikes if the U.S. economy takes more steps toward reaching the Fed's goals of full employment and 2% inflation. Kaplan, who votes this year on Fed policy, repeated his view that the economy will likely grow about 2.25% this year, but could grow faster, or more slowly, depending in part on the policies the new administration implements. With government debt rising, reform of entitlement programs such as Medicare and Social Security must be on the table, he said.
Chicago Fed President Charles Evans said that the case for four interest rate hikes in the United States this year is not yet solid and would require a stronger lift in inflation. Evans said he saw three rate hikes in 2017 as "plausible", but added that two or four increases were also a possibility. In his opinion long-term inflation expectations may still be running below the U.S. Federal Reserve's target of 2%, though in the shorter term prices are rising towards that figure. Evans said he did not expect core inflation, which strips out volatile elements like energy prices, would reach the 2% target until 2019.
The dollar steadied on Tuesday after its worst week since U.S. President Donald Trump’s election in November, promises of more rises in Federal Reserve interest rates this year helping it recover from multi-month lows in still shaky global markets.
Technical analysis: The EUR/USD managed to close above 1.0825 (38.2% retrace of May-January fall), which means that 1.0976 (50%) is unmasked. Tenkan line is pointing north, indicative of positive momentum. The 7-day exponential moving average is positively aligned. 
Short-term signal: We are looking to buy EUR at 1.0780. Our next short-term target will be 1.0960, just below 50% fibo of May-January drop.
Long-term outlook: Long-term target is 1.1125.
USD/CAD: Near-term outlook is unclear, all eyes on Poloz today
Macroeconomic overview: The Canadian dollar was little changed on Monday against its U.S. counterpart as lower oil prices offset broadbased losses for the greenback. Investors are focused on a today’s speech by Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz. He is likely to be asked about the recent better-than-expected economic performance in Canada.
Canada's annual inflation hit the central bank's 2.0% target in February for the second month in a row, but closely watched core measures remained tame, indicating little pressure for a rate hike. The market had expected inflation to remain at 2.1%.
Earlier this month, the Bank of Canada said it was looking past what it called the temporary impact of higher energy prices, noting that muted underlying inflation continued to point to material excess capacity. Of the three new core inflation measures, CPI common, which the central bank says is the best gauge of the economy's underperformance, was furthest away from target, remaining at 1.3%. CPI median, which shows the median inflation rate across CPI components, remained at 1.9%, while CPI trim, which excludes upside and downside outliers, slipped to 1.6% from 1.7%.
We expect the next move of the Bank of Canada will be a hike in the second quarter of 2018
Technical analysis: The USD/CAD did not manage to break below support at 38.2% fibo of January-March rise and is testing the resistance at 23.6% fibo of that move now. The technical analysis does not provide a clear signal for now, but a close above 1.3399 will support USD/CAD bulls. 
Short-term signal: Small profit taken on USD/CAD short after the rate hit the lowered stop-loss level at 1.3410. We stay sideways now.
Long-term outlook: In our opinion long-term outlook is slightly bearish, given improving fundamentals of Canadian economy. But there is still a risk of upward move in the near term.
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