Talking Points:- EUR/USD Technical Strategy: Flat
- Candle Pattern Hints Euro Down Move vs. US Dollar May Be Resuming
- Passing on Short Position Until Favorable Risk/Reward Setup Emerges
The euro put in a bearish Evening Star candlestick pattern, hinting a turn lower against the US dollar may be ahead. A move downward from here would mark resumption of the decline from late-August highs above the 1.17 figure, making good on a break of near-term trend line support two weeks ago.
Near-term support is at 1.1225, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, with a break below that on a daily closing basis opening the door for a challenge of the 38.2% level at 1.1134. Alternatively, a rebound above the 14.6% Fib at 1.1282 clears the way for a test of the September 14th high at 1.1373.
Our short position from 1.1224 was stopped out last week. We are keen to re-enter the position, but an actionable trade setup is absent at this stage. Most critically, prices are too close to support to justify triggering a trade from a risk/reward perspective. With that in mind, we will remain on the sidelines and wait for a more attractive opportunity to present itself.
