OPEC+ decided to send a message of confidence to the global oil market. By deciding to go ahead with their 400,000 barrels of oil a day production increase, they seemed to be saying that they’re not afraid of your omicron variant. The move caught traders by surprise and after the initial sell-off traders realized that if OPEC was raising production, they must not be too concerned that oil prices could fall any further and probably cemented the bottom in a market that has been fixated with concerns about the omicron variant. It may be too early to tell but reports seem to suggest that this variant is very mild and may have not nearly as much impact on global oil demand as the market has priced in.
A weaker-than-expected jobs creation number released this morning caused the dollar to sell off and gave oil a bit of a boost.
The Biden administration celebrated the OPEC decision but, in the meantime, still are investigating U.S. oil and gas companies for colluding in raising gasoline prices.
The Iranian nuclear talks don’t seem to be going anywhere. They were delayed today until next week and it seems like little progress is being made despite reports of a draft communique last week. It appears that both sides show skepticism that a deal can get done. Don’t look for any Iranian barrels to come on the market anytime soon. Check that – I mean don’t expect any Iranian barrels to come on the market legally anytime soon.
Natural gas prices are bouncing back. The weather forecast for late December may turn cold once again. Flip-flopping weather forecast has kept the natural gas traders on guard. The market looked extremely oversold and now it looks like we could find some support and start to rally again. We think that natural gas should be bought on breaks but be very cautious as the weather seems to be a major factor in Europe. Of course tensions with Russia continue to be running high.
Christine Lagarde says that she expects energy prices will come down dramatically in 2022. What does she know that we do not know?
Market action suggested oil has finally hit bottom though we could still see some volatility. Our expectations are it’s time to put on those hedges.
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