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End of the Year Stock Market Performance

ByKirk Du Plessis
Published 12/27/2011, 09:01 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM

As the stock market heads into the last trading week of the year, the historical performance figures actually favor the bulls slightly. Last week the market inched out a slightly gain on the YTD return numbers. Odd how all the trading for an entire year comes down to just this last week.

If stocks have a good week, we’ll end the year higher overall. Anything less than a 4% return overall YTD is big loss for investors in my book. With investing expenses, taxes, and inflation a return under 4% to me would be a flat and inefficient use of money. If you aren’t moving forward, you are moving back.

SP-500-Performance

Above are the statistics for the last trading week since 1928. Generally speaking the market has seen gains more than 60% of the time. With the VIX as low as it’s been in recent weeks I’d be wildly surprised to see a sell-off at this point (next year is a whole different story).

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