Breaking News
0
Ad-Free Version. Upgrade your Investing.com experience. Save up to 40% More details

E-mini: Weak Buy Signal At Bottom Of A 2-Month Trading Range

By Al BrooksStock MarketsOct 04, 2021 09:55AM ET
www.investing.com/analysis/emini-weak-buy-signal-at-bottom-of-a-2month-trading-range-200603910
E-mini: Weak Buy Signal At Bottom Of A 2-Month Trading Range
By Al Brooks   |  Oct 04, 2021 09:55AM ET
Saved. See Saved Items.
This article has already been saved in your Saved Items
 

E-mini pre-open market analysis

E-mini daily chart

Friday was a big bull reversal bar for E-mini. It was the second reversal up from below the August trading range. Now a lower low double bottom has appeared with the Sept. 30 low, making it a 2-month trading range. That said, Friday also had a big tail on top. That represents hesitation by the bulls, and it reduces the chance of a resumption of the 2021 bull trend from here. September was a bear bar on the monthly chart as well, so it is probably the start of a 2- to 3-month sideways to down correction.

The 4-week selloff broke far below the bull channel on the weekly chart. There is at least a 50% chance that the weekly Small Pullback Bull Trend has ended. If so, the correction should continue down for at least 15%, which is 50% bigger than the biggest pullback in the Small Pullback Bull Trend.

Because the September selloff lasted a lot of bars, and the E-mini is trying to hold at the bottom of the August trading range, the E-mini could bounce up to the Sept. 23 lower high.

The bears hope that the E-mini is in a bear trend. They have a 50% chance of being right. If they are, a 1- to 2-week rally from here should fail around the September 23 lower high. Bears want a double top with that high. A measured move down would be around 4100. A bear trend is a series of lower highs and lows. Each lower high is a failed reversal attempt. That means a bear trend typically has many strong rallies.

Remember, the minimum target on the weekly chart is 15%, which is around 3850. That is below the gap above the Apr. 1 high and below the 4,000 Big Round Number.

On the monthly chart, the selloff should last at least 2 to 3 months. Therefore, if the high for the year is in, the E-mini should fall below 4,000 this year. I have been saying that there is a 50% chance that Sept. 2 will remain the high for the year. That means there is a 50% chance of a new high. But if there is a new high this year, it will probably fail to get much above the September high since the monthly buy climax is extreme and the E-mini has been sideways for 3 months.

The bulls need to get bull bars closing near their highs and they need a strong break above the Sept. 23 lower high before traders will conclude that the correction has ended.

E-mini 5-minute chart and what to expect today

E-mini was down 5+ points in the overnight Globex session. Traders are deciding if Friday’s profit taking will be the start of a rally up to the Sept. 23 lower high or just a pause in the September bear trend.

The day after a buy climax day only has a 25% chance of being another strong bull day. There is a 75% chance that today will have at least a couple hours of sideways to down trading that begins by the end of the 2nd hour. Also, the E-mini is back in Wednesday and Thursday’s trading range and around the bottom of the August trading range. That further increases the chance that it could stall here for a few days.

Confusion is a hallmark of a trading range. The E-mini might be forming a trading range since the Sept. 20 low. If today is a trading range, there should be at least one swing up and one swing down since Friday’s range was so big.

E-mini: Weak Buy Signal At Bottom Of A 2-Month Trading Range
 

Related Articles

E-mini: Weak Buy Signal At Bottom Of A 2-Month Trading Range

Add a Comment

Comment Guidelines

We encourage you to use comments to engage with other users, share your perspective and ask questions of authors and each other. However, in order to maintain the high level of discourse we’ve all come to value and expect, please keep the following criteria in mind:  

  •            Enrich the conversation, don’t trash it.

  •           Stay focused and on track. Only post material that’s relevant to the topic being discussed. 

  •           Be respectful. Even negative opinions can be framed positively and diplomatically. Avoid profanity, slander or personal attacks directed at an author or another user. Racism, sexism and other forms of discrimination will not be tolerated.

  • Use standard writing style. Include punctuation and upper and lower cases. Comments that are written in all caps and contain excessive use of symbols will be removed.
  • NOTE: Spam and/or promotional messages and comments containing links will be removed. Phone numbers, email addresses, links to personal or business websites, Skype/Telegram/WhatsApp etc. addresses (including links to groups) will also be removed; self-promotional material or business-related solicitations or PR (ie, contact me for signals/advice etc.), and/or any other comment that contains personal contact specifcs or advertising will be removed as well. In addition, any of the above-mentioned violations may result in suspension of your account.
  • Doxxing. We do not allow any sharing of private or personal contact or other information about any individual or organization. This will result in immediate suspension of the commentor and his or her account.
  • Don’t monopolize the conversation. We appreciate passion and conviction, but we also strongly believe in giving everyone a chance to air their point of view. Therefore, in addition to civil interaction, we expect commenters to offer their opinions succinctly and thoughtfully, but not so repeatedly that others are annoyed or offended. If we receive complaints about individuals who take over a thread or forum, we reserve the right to ban them from the site, without recourse.
  • Only English comments will be allowed.

Perpetrators of spam or abuse will be deleted from the site and prohibited from future registration at Investing.com’s discretion.

Write your thoughts here
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
Post also to:
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Thanks for your comment. Please note that all comments are pending until approved by our moderators. It may therefore take some time before it appears on our website.
 
Are you sure you want to delete this chart?
 
Post
 
Replace the attached chart with a new chart ?
1000
Your ability to comment is currently suspended due to negative user reports. Your status will be reviewed by our moderators.
Please wait a minute before you try to comment again.
Add Chart to Comment
Confirm Block

Are you sure you want to block %USER_NAME%?

By doing so, you and %USER_NAME% will not be able to see any of each other's Investing.com's posts.

%USER_NAME% was successfully added to your Block List

Since you’ve just unblocked this person, you must wait 48 hours before renewing the block.

Report this comment

I feel that this comment is:

Comment flagged

Thank You!

Your report has been sent to our moderators for review
Disclaimer: Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. All CFDs (stocks, indexes, futures) and Forex prices are not provided by exchanges but rather by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual market price, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Therefore Fusion Media doesn`t bear any responsibility for any trading losses you might incur as a result of using this data.

Fusion Media or anyone involved with Fusion Media will not accept any liability for loss or damage as a result of reliance on the information including data, quotes, charts and buy/sell signals contained within this website. Please be fully informed regarding the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, it is one of the riskiest investment forms possible.
Continue with Google
or
Sign up with Email