30-year U.S. bonds are moving higher into a third leg of recovery, which we think its wave C of corrective retracement as discussed yesterday. In such pull-backs you will usually see a reversal back to the termination point of a previous fourth wave, so be aware of more upside in the near-term. Further gains on bonds will probably cause even more weakness on the USD/JPY.
30year US bonds 4h
The USD/JPY fell sharply lower last week through the 99.25 swing low which was a trend change point. We're assuming that top is in place, at least temporarily, and that the market will make three waves down. If that’s the case, then the pair is now in wave B/2, and may find resistance around the 100 area from where we will see a decline down to 97.00 this week.