After months of range-bound trading, Bitcoin is now setting up for a huge breakout above key resistance. Here’s how to profit from this hot crypto swing trade setup now…
After correcting 74% from last year’s high of 69,000, Bitcoin found a bottom in mid-June 2022.
Since then, the King of Crypto has been oscillating in a sideways range between 18,500 and 25,000.
However, the long-term weekly chart indicates that Bitcoin is now revving up for a massive upside breakout.
The weekly chart of BTC below shows why it may soon be time to jump back into Bitcoin:
Why Bitcoin is set up for a massive breakout now
- Accumulation volume – Above, notice that BTC just had its largest volume week in trading history. This is a sign of stealth institutional accumulation, which often occurs near key lows of support. Such volume spikes often precede large moves higher (after the “big boys” are done loading up).
- Triple bottom support – Firm support has been established around the 18,000-18,500 area over the past few months. Daily chart shows the formation of a triple bottom pattern.
- Relative strength – BTC has held in a sideways range, while the major stock indices have been making new lows. Bitcoin’s increasing relative strength to the stock market means that BTC may explode higher when stocks eventually start bouncing (which began on October 3).
Don’t jump the gun
As always, it’s important to wait for a proper entry trigger price before buying.
Specifically, Bitcoin must convincingly break out above its downtrend line on higher volume.
However, BTC is also still trading below its 50-day moving average—an important “line in the sand” indicator of intermediate-term trend.
As such, we also need to see BTC break out above its 50-day MA before entry.
The good news is the 50-day MA neatly converges with the downtrend line (around the 20,200 level).
The daily chart time frame below shows the proper buy trigger, as well as an ideal stop price to protect against a failed breakout:
As annotated on the first chart, our profit target area is resistance around the 29,000 level.
With a buy trigger above 20,200, that’s a profit target of more than +40%.
This swing trade setup carries a highly positive risk-reward ratio of 1:4, as we are risking (less than) 10% for a potential profit target of roughly 40%.
Flight to the new “safety” of Bitcoin?
Recently, news emerged that Credit Suisse bank (one of the largest investment banks in the world ) may be on the brink of collapse.
As with the bankruptcy of Lehman in 2008, such a black swan event could have massive implications to the entire financial system—especially since Credit Suisse is much larger than Lehman was.
A collapse of Credit Suisse could obviously have damaging, far-reaching effects to the traditional finance sector—but what about Bitcoin?
In theory, Bitcoin was created precisely to provide investors with an escape from over-leveraged financial systems.
As such, a collapse of Credit Suisse could theoretically be bullish for Bitcoin.
If Bitcoin decouples from financial markets while everything is crashing, it would be a key factor for globalization and mass adoption.
On the other hand, many market makers and institutions still view BTC as a “risk on” asset.
Accordingly, Bitcoin could just as easily break down below support if liquidity evaporates during a black swan event.
Either scenario could easily happen, but we won’t speculate which way Bitcoin will go if disaster unfolds with Credit Suisse (which may not even happen).
Since 2002, the mantra of our swing trading strategy has been trade what we see, not what we think.
Therefore, it really does not matter what we think about which way BTC would go.
Opportunity awaits
This Bitcoin swing trade setup is hot and you surely don’t want to miss it!
However, be sure to wait for a proper buy trigger price (above the downtrend line and 50-day MA).
As always, don’t forget your protective stop because anything can happen in the markets.