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Dollar And Gold: Could This Be The New Normal?

Published 12/03/2014, 11:56 PM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
XAU/USD
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DXY
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DXY Daily vs Spot Gold

I am not sure what to make of the U.S. Dollar (DXY) vs Spot Gold relationship recently, because it has certainly been counter-intuitive, not to mention counter-historical.

It is unusual to have such a strong Dollar concurrent with such a resilient Gold price. That said, the relationship is not counter-seasonal, however.

When the Dollar has a pronounced direction heading into December, it usually continues into year end, while Dececember usually resides within the seasonally-strong November-March time period for Gold.

Be that as it may, the multi-month DXY uptrend is considerably more powerful than the budding Gold recovery rally. At this point, Gold must climb and sustain above heavy resistance at 55/60 to trigger any meaningful upside traction.

Bottom Line: My suspicion is that the strong Dollar is approaching a peak in and around 90.00, and that an oversold, under-owned, Gold market is ripe for a recovery rally at a minimum, and a surprisingly strong upmove, if, in fact, the Dollar is peaking.

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