Market movers today
The main release will be euro PMI in January. Manufacturing PMI is likely to move broadly sideways after having been on an upward trend since April 2013. The index is at the highest level in more than two years and it suggests GDP growth slightly above our expectation for Q1, so we would not be surprised if manufacturing PMI does not rise further for some time. Services PMI has been declining slowly over the past three months but is still around 51. We expect a small improvement.
In the US we expect the Flash Markit PMI to show a slight increase as it has been lagging ISM a bit lately. US demand was quite strong at the end of 2013 and we expect it to be reflected in strong manufacturing production early this year.
The US also releases initial jobless claims, preliminary consumer confidence for January and existing home sales for December. The claims have been very volatile for a while and difficult to use as a gauge of the labour market. There may be a risk that it disappoints if the bad weather has had further impact on construction employment. US consumer confidence is expected to be broadly flat in January, whereas existing home sales should eke out a small rise for December.
In Sweden the December labour force survey is expected to show a decline in the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate.
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