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Danske Daily: Emerging Markets Take Center Stage

ByDanske Markets
Published 02/03/2014, 07:50 AM
Updated 05/14/2017, 06:45 AM

Focus continues to be on emerging markets. Large parts of Asia are closed today due to the Chinese New Year public holiday. In Turkey, South Africa, Brazil and Mexico manufacturing PMIs are due for release later today. Turkish CPI could also get some attention.

In terms of data releases focus will be on PMI manufacturing in Italy and Spain. We expect the figure for both countries to show further improvement and in particular the Spanish indicator could move higher. Consensus is for a drop in the Italian figure and a small increase in the Spanish one. Irish manufacturing PMI was released this morning and showed a small decrease to 52.8 in January from 53.2. We do not expect major revisions of final PMIs for the euro-area, Germany and France.

In the US the ISM manufacturing index should give us an indication of business activity in a large part of the economy. The index has been well above other indicators for some time and we expect it to decrease to 55.9 in January, still pointing towards higher activity. We expect final Markit PMI to settle at 53.7.

This week's main event will be Thursday's ECB meeting. We continue to believe the ECB will ease again. In our view there is a strong case for lower rates and the window is wide open for more easing but the question is whether the ECB will act already, see also Weekly Focus: Case for further easing by ECB .

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