Market movers today
In the euro area, figures on M3 money growth and loan growth for August are due. In July, M3 growth was reported at 4.5% y/y, which is somewhat lower than the 4.9-5.0% level reported in previous months, but we estimate money growth returned to this range in August.
In the US, core capex orders for August are due to be released. Although core capex has been trending upwards since last summer at approximately 0.5% per month, overall industrial production fell 0.9% m/m in August. Hence, we estimate an unchanged core capex in August. However, uncertainty is particularly large for August due to the hurricanes.
In Sweden, the September NIER consumer and business confidence surveys are of some interest, especially business confidence. The background is that PMIs for manufacturing and services have seen something of a nosedive recently but we haven't seen anything of the sort in the NIER data, which remains elevated. That said, the NIER survey is much broader than the PMI and we tend to rely more on the former. Still, if NIER data should also start to dip, it would be at odds with the general perception of the Swedish economy. Another thing to keep an eye on in the survey is retailers' price plans. This indicator has dropped considerably too and may be a sign inflation is close to a peak.
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