It is a fairly thin data release calendar today, which means that market focus will be on the situation surrounding North Korea after the country's leader claimed yesterday that the US had declared war on the country.
In the US, the only major data release today is the Conference Board consumer confidence indicator for September. We estimate that the indicator should fall in tandem with the preliminary Michigan consumer confidence number to a level of around 121.5. Note that despite the fall, both indicators will still be at very high levels, indicating continued support for consumer spending.
Several Fed speakers are due to speak, including Neel Kashkari (voter, dovish), Loretta Mester (non-voter, hawkish) and Fed chair Janet Yellen (voter, neutral).
In Sweden, the August PPI data set is released for August. From a market perspective, there is usually limited focus on these numbers. PPI data is for natural reasons strongly influenced by exchange rate gyrations but the feed through to consumer prices is normally quite small. Looking at for instance consumer goods (PPI for domestic supply), the latest y/y rate runs at 4.2% while CPI for goods rise at 0.8% y/y. The krona has appreciated against the EUR and USD recently, so PPI inflation will probably come down again relatively soon.
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