Although the markets are still set to focus on the political implications of the Brexit vote, attention is starting to turn to economic releases to gauge the economic impact, although many releases will still have been compiled before the UK vote.
In the UK, the conservative party leader nomination closes at noon, while BoE governor Carney speaks at BoE at 5 pm (CEST).
In the euro area, the HICP inflation figures for May are due. For the first time since January we expect a positive inflation figure at +0.1% y/y from -0.1% y/y and core inflation to increase slightly to 0.9% y/y from 0.8% y/y. The latest oil price increase is starting to drive up inflation and we expect inflation to be close to 1% at the end of 2016.
Furthermore, German retail sales data for May are due for release. The continued oil price increase in May points towards continuation of the weak trend in retail sales. However, German consumer confidence has increased from March through May, which points towards an improvement in retail sales.
In the US Chicago PMI for June is due. The market expects a small uptick to 50.3 compared with 49.3 in May. Furthermore, Fed's Bullard (a voter and hawk) speaks today.
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