Market movers today
Today, HICP inflation from Spain and Germany for June will be in focus. We look for Spanish inflation to have dropped to 1.4% y/y (consensus: 1.5% y/y) from 2.0% in May. In Germany, we are in line with consensus at 1.3% y/y from 1.4% in May. The drop in June inflation is estimated to have been driven by lower energy prices. Italian HICP inflation released yesterday further suggests that food price inflation had a lower contribution in June and it gives downside risk to our estimates for today's releases.
In the euro area, business confidence data is due to be released by the EU Commission. It normally mirrors what we see in PMI and regional business surveys - so not much new information in this.
In the US, it is time for the weekly jobless claims. It has been hovering around 235-250,000 since March, pointing to a quite robust labour market with few layoffs. The Fed's Bullard is due to speak tonight on monetary policy.
In the Scandies, focus will be on Swedish retail sales and household lending.
Overnight Japan will be releasing CPI and Chinese official PMI manufacturing for June is also due.
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