Main event in Scandies will be the Riksbank meeting where a rate cut cannot be ruled out, see Scandi Markets.
Otherwise the key market drivers continue to be developments in the oil market, the stress in US high yield and the Fed meeting tomorrow.
The last piece of interesting US data ahead of the Fed decision will be released today with the November US inflation numbers. Core inflation is the number to watch and it is expected to rise 0.2% m/m. This will take the annual core inflation rate to 2.0% y/y from 1.9% y/y. The US also releases the Empire manufacturing survey as well as the NAHB housing survey.
UK inflation for November is due for release and we look for an increase to 0.1% y/y (in line with consensus) from -0.1% y/y in October boosted by all four major components (services, non-energy industrial goods, energy and foods). We estimate core inflation has increased from 1.1% y/y in October to 1.3% y/y (consensus 1.2% y/y) in November.
We expect German ZEW expectations for December to increase modestly signalling further improvement in the German business cycle following the recent soft patch.
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