China50 And Germany30 Indices Continued To Rally

Daily Markets Broadcast April 4, 2019

Wall Street higher on deal optimism

With US-China trade talks continuing in Washington the FT reported that a deal was “close” and Wall Street embraced it positively. However, the details of the proposed deal suggest a slightly one-sided bias in the terms.

US30USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The US30 index edged higher this morning to near six-month highs in the follow-on from yesterday’s trade deal rumours.
• The next possible resistance point could be the October 2018 high of 26,940.
• Yesterday’s ADP employment change was soft, coming in a +129k jobs versus +170k expected. Is this a preview of what tomorrow’s payroll report will show? There are no major data releases today, but we have speeches from Fed’s Mester and Williams.

DE30EUR Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The Germany30 index extend its current rally to an eighth day yesterday amid a broader pickup in risk appetite. That’s the longest winning streak since July last year.
• The index touched the highest in almost six months yesterday and is rising toward the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of last year’s May-December drop at 12,581.
• German factory orders are seen falling for a ninth straight month in February. Orders are expected to decline by 5.4% y/y after a 3.9% drop in January.

CN50USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The China50 index continued to rally yesterday on trade talk optimism despite the prospect that the US is demanding unilateral enforcement conditions.
• The index rose to the highest in almost a year yesterday and has recouped about 70% of the 2018 losses. The 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the January 2018 to January 2019 drop is at 13,908.
• The US is seeking terms in the trade deal that allow it to re-impose tariffs immediately if China does not comply, but China cannot do the same, nor can it take the US to the World Trade Organisation.

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