Sharp Decline In Chinese Exports And Imports In February

Daily Markets Broadcast March 11, 2019

Wall Street shrugs off payrolls miss

Wall Street closed higher for the first time in five days on Friday despite a heavy headline miss on the U.S. payrolls number. Other parts of the report, unemployment rate and wage growth, were stronger. China reports “some progress” in the trade talks with the U.S.

US30USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The US30 index touched the lowest in almost a month on Friday after the payrolls data, but rebounded to finish higher, snapping a four-day losing streak.
• The 200-day moving average at 25,131 remains untouched, supporting prices since February 12.
• U.S. economy added just 20,000 jobs in February, the least since September 2017 and much less than the 180,000 expected. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8% and avg hourly earnings rose 3.4% y/y, the most in a decade. Seasonality, the weather, and the U.S. government shutdown have been blamed for the poor report, introducing a bit of skepticism about the headline number.

DE30EUR Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The Germany30 index slid for a third consecutive day on Friday, taking its cue from Wall Street and the hangover from the ECB’s moves the previous day. Rumors were also circulating that some ECB officials were even more pessimistic about the outlook and considered the latest staff projections to be too optimistic.
• Trendline support has risen to around 11,300 today, with other support coming in at 11,260 as the 100-day moving average lurks below at 11,197.

CN50USD Daily Chart

Source: OANDA fxTrade

• The China50 index fell for a third straight day on Friday following dismal trade numbers for February. It fell to an 11-day low.
• The index has fallen 7% from Wednesday’s peak and is approaching the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of this year’s rally at 12,111.
• Both exports and imports declined sharply in February, partly due to the timing of the Lunar New Year holiday this year, but also amid weakening demand. Exports fell 20.7% y/y, the most in three years, while imports declined 5.2% y/y, lower than the -1.4% economists had predicted.

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