Daily Currency Outlook: GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY - April 19, 2013

Daily Pivots: (S1) 148.96; (P) 149.71; (R1) 150.71;

The GBP/JPY's rebound from 146.42 continued on Friday, reaching as high as 151.92. Nonetheless, it's still limited below 153.86 resistance. Outlook is unchanged as we'd expect consolidation from 153.86 to extend further sideways. Below 149.87 minor support will flip bias to the downside for another leg. In this case, downside should be contained above 145.91 and bring rebound. We'd expect an upside breakout through 153.86 after the consolidative price actions completes.

In the bigger picture, medium term fall from 163.05 has already completed at 116.83 . It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). Rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05. Medium term rise is now expected back at163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 140.37 support holds.

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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 127.23; (P) 128.01; (R1) 128.86;

The EUR/JPY's rebound from 124.78 resumed, reaching 129.80. It's still kept well below 131.12 resistance, and outlook is unchanged. We'd continue to expect more sideway trading as consolidation from 131.12 extends. Below 128.05 will turn bias to the downside for another falling leg. Downside should be contained above 123.86 support and bring rebound. Eventually, an upside breakout is expected, and above 131.12 will resume whole rally from 94.11.

Whole downtrend from 169.96 (2008 high) has already completed at 94.11, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Rise isn't finished yet and is expected to continue to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11, at 132.03 next. Such rise would likely extend to 139.21 resistance and above. Break of 119.10 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Outlook will stay bullish.

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