Daily Currency Outlook: GBP/JPY, EUR/JPY - April 16, 2013

Daily Pivots: (S1) 146.08; (P) 148.90; (R1) 150.62;

The GBP/JPY pair dived sharply to as low as 146.42, but received some support above mentioned 145.91 and recovered. As this point, we'd still treat the fall from 153.86 as part of a consolidation pattern and expect more sideways trading below 153.86 in the near term. Downside is expected to be contained above 145.91 while we don't expect an upside break out yet. Recent up trend from 118.82 is expected to resume sooner or later. Note that a break of 145.91 will dampen our bullish view and turn focus to 140.37 key support instead.

Medium term fall from 163.05 has already completed at 116.83. It's a bit early to conclude reversal of the long term down trend from 251.09 (2007 high). A rise from 116.83 should at least be a move at the same degree as fall from 163.05. Medium term rise is now expected back at 163.05. We'll stay bullish as long as 140.37 support holds.
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EUR/JPY Daily Outlook

Daily Pivots: (S1) 124.65; (P) 126.98; (R1) 128.41;

The EUR/JPY's fall from 131.12 reached as low as 124.87, but recovered ahead of mentioned 123.86 support. No change in outlook. Price actions from 131.12 are viewed as part of the consolidation pattern. Downside attempt should be contained above 123.85 and bring rebound. Meanwhile, a break of 131.12 is not anticipated in near term, as more sideways trading is expected. A rise from 94.11 is expected to resume sooner or later.

In the bigger picture, whole down trend from 169.96 (2008 high) has already completed at 94.11, on bullish convergence condition in weekly MACD. Rise from there isn't finished yet, and is expected to continue to 50% retracement of 169.96 to 94.11 at 132.03 next. Such a rise would likely extend to 139.21 resistance and above. Break of 119.10 support is needed to be the first sign of medium term topping. Otherwise, outlook will stay bullish.

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