USD/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 113.40; (P) 113.61; (R1) 113.86;
USD/JPY’s break of 113.18 minor support suggests resumption of fall from 114.03. Intraday bias is turned back to the downside for 112.30 support first. Break there will target 111.37 and below. On the upside, break of 114.03 resistance will resume the rise from 111.37 to 114.73 resistance. Overall, price actions from 114.54 are seen as a consolidation pattern. Hence, even in case of deep decline, downside should be contained by 38.2% retracement of 104.62 to 114.54 at 110.75 to bring rebound.
In the bigger picture, corrective fall from 118.65 (2016 high) should have completed with three waves down to 104.62. Decisive break of 114.73 resistance will likely resume whole rally from 98.97 (2016 low) to 100% projection of 98.97 to 118.65 from 104.62 at 124.30, which is reasonably close to 125.85 (2015 high). This will stay as the preferred case as long as 109.76 support holds. However, decisive break of 109.76 will dampen this bullish view and turns outlook mixed again.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9963; (P) 0.9981; (R1) 0.9997;
USD/CHF failed to break through 1.0006 minor resistance again and intraday bias stays neutral first. On the downside, break of 38.2% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9904 will resume the fall from 1.0128 to 0.9848 key support level. Break there will indicate near term reversal and target 61.8% at 0.9765. On the upside, break of 1.0006 will argue that the pull back from 1.0128 has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.1028.
In the bigger picture, rise from 0.9541 could have topped at 1.0128. But as long as 0.9541 support holds, we’d still expect rise from 0.9186 to resume at a later stage. Break of 1.0128 will target 1.0342 key resistance. However, break of 0.9514 will pave the way back to 0.9186 low.
