USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 0.9965; (P) 1.0026; (R1) 1.0062;
The break of 0.9952 support suggests short term topping in USD/CHF at 1.0128, on bearish divergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias is turned to the downside for 38.2% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0128 at 0.9904 first. Break will put 0.9848 structural support into focus. On the upside, above 1.0006 minor resistance will indicate that the pull back has completed. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for retesting 1.0128 high.
In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading. However, break of 0.9848 near term support will dampen this view and bring deeper decline back to 0.9541 support and possibly below.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.2802; (P) 1.2843; (R1) 1.2891;
No change in GBP/USD’s outlook. Intraday bias stays neutral for the moment. Also, price actions from 1.2661 are viewed as a consolidation pattern. Break of 1.2692 will bring retest of 1.2661 first. Firm break there will resume the larger down trend from 1.4376. On the upside, sustained break of 4 hour 55 EMA (now at 1.2905) could extend the consolidation with another rise. But even in case of strong rally, upside should be limited by 1.3316 fibonacci level to bring down trend resumption eventually.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
