USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0022; (P) 1.0047; (R1) 1.0086;
USD/CHF’s rebound from 0.9952 extends higher today but it’s limited below 1.0094 so far. Intraday bias remains neutral first. On the upside, break of 1.0094 and sustained trading above 1.0067 will confirm resumption of whole rise from 0.9541. USD/CHF should then target 1.0342 key resistance next. On the downside, below 0.9952 will extend the consolidation from 1.0094 with another decline. But we’d expect strong support from 38.2% retracement of 0.9541 to 1.0094 at 0.9883 to contain downside to bring rebound
In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading. However, firm break of 0.9848 near term support will dampen this view and bring deeper decline back to 0.9541 support and possibly below.
GBP/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.3020; (P) 1.3086; (R1) 1.3126;
GBP/USD’s retreat from 1.3174 extends lower today but stays above 1.2951 support. Intraday bias remains neutral and another rise could still be seen. On the upside, above 1.3174 will target 1.3257/3297 resistance zone. However, as rise from 1.2692 is viewed as the third leg of consolidation pattern from 1.2661, we’d expect strong resistance from 1.3316 fibonacci level to limit upside to bring down trend resumption eventually. On the downside, below 1.2951 minor support will turn bias back to the downside for 1.2692 and then 1.2661 key support.
In the bigger picture, whole medium term rebound from 1.1946 (2016 low) should have completed at 1.4376 already, after rejection from 55 month EMA. The structure and momentum of the fall from 1.4376 argues that it’s resuming long term down trend. And this will be the preferred case as long as 38.2% retracement of 1.4376 to 1.2661 at 1.3316 holds. However, firm break of 1.3316 would bring stronger rebound to 61.8% retracement at 1.3721. And, the eventual depth of the fall from 1.4376, and the chance of hitting 1.1946 low, will depend on the strength of the interim corrective rebound from 1.2661.
