GBP/JPY Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 141.91; (P) 142.58; (R1) 142.99;
GBP/JPY is staying in consolidation from 141.17 and intraday bias remains neutral for now. Near term outlook remains bearish with 144.02 support turned resistance intact. On the downside, below 141.17 will resume the fall from 149.70 and target 139.29/47 key support zone. However, considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, decisive break of 144.02 will suggest near term reversal. Stronger rally should then be seen to 55 day EMA (now at 144.96) and above.
In the bigger picture, as long as 139.29 cluster support (50% retracement of 122.36 to 156.59 at 139.47) holds, up trend from 122.36 (2016 low) could still extend beyond 156.69 high. However, decisive break of 139.29/47 will suggest that such up trend is completed and turn outlook bearish. In that case, next target is 61.8% retracement at 135.43.
EUR/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1248; (P) 1.1270; (R1) 1.1293;
EUR/CHF is staying in range above 1.1224 and intraday bias remains neutral first. Considering bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD, a short term bottom is likely in pace. On the upside, break of 1.1301 minor resistance will target 1.1356 resistance first. Decisive break there should confirm near term reversal. In that case, further rally should be seen back to 1.1501 resistance. However, on the downside, below 1.1224 will invalidate this bullish case and extend the fall to 1.1173 low instead. But still, we’d expect strong support inside 1.1154/98 key support zone to bring reversal.
In the bigger picture, price actions from 1.2004 medium term top is seen as a correction only. Downside should be contained by support zone of 1.1198 (2016 high) and 61.8% retracement of 1.0629 to 1.2004 at 1.1154 to complete it and bring rebound. A break of 1.2 key resistance is still expected in the medium term long term. However, sustained break of the mentioned support zone will mark reversal of the long term trend. In that case, 1.0629 key support will be back into focus.
