EUR/USD Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.1328; (P) 1.1358; (R1) 1.1375;
EUR/USD is holding above 1.1335 temporary low and intraday bias stays neutral first. Further decline is expected as long as 1.1431 support turned resistance holds. On the downside, below 1.1335 will target 1.1300 low first. Decisive break will resume whole down trend from 1.2555 and target 1.1186 fibonacci level next. On the upside, however, break of 1.1431 resistance will indicate short term bottoming, with bullish convergence condition in 4 hour MACD. Intraday bias will be turned back to the upside for 1.1621 resistance and above.
In the bigger picture, corrective pattern from 1.1300 could have completed at 1.1814 after hitting 38.2% retracement of 1.2555 to 1.1300 at 1.1779. Decisive break of 1.1300 will resume the down trend from 1.2555 to 61.8% retracement of 1.0339 (2017 low) to 1.2555 at 1.1186 next. Sustained break there will pave the way to retest 1.0339. On the upside, break of 1.1814 will delay the bearish case and extend the correction from 1.1300 with another rise before completion.
USD/CHF Daily Outlook
Daily Pivots: (S1) 1.0022; (P) 1.0038; (R1) 1.0067;
Intraday bias in USD/CHF remains on the upside for 1.0067 resistance. Decisive break there will confirm resumption of larger rise from 0.9186 and should target 1.0342 key resistance next. In any case, near term outlook will remain bullish as long as 0.9954 resistance turned support holds. However, break of 0.9954 will confirm short term topping and bring deeper pull back to 0.9848 support and below.
In the bigger picture, the pullback from 1.0067 has completed at 0.9541 already. And rise from 0.9186 is likely resuming. Firm break of 1.0067 will pave the way to retest 1.0342 key resistance. We’d be cautious on strong resistance from there to limit upside to bring another medium term fall to extend long term range trading.
