Cyprus: Just Another Spark For Market Relief Phase

It is important not to over intellectualize things. The Cyprus hype is in reality just another manifestation of hazards hard-wired into the global financial system. These hazards are created by policies that rely on credit (and debt) as economic fundamentals. In the short-term, issues like Cyprus’ proposed confiscation of depositors’ funds are just games in the casino. Will the market experience ‘Cyprus relief’ on Monday and rise to new highs or will it drop? Place your bets!

We should know by now that bad policy (and resulting hazard) does not equal ‘bear market’ over intermediate term cycles and alarming macro events do not always equal ‘stocks going down’ in the short-term. In 2012, the problems throughout the Euro zone set the sentiment backdrop up nicely and relief after the Fiscal Cliff Kabuki Dance in Washington launched the hard up phase that is now registering targets.

That is what is important; the market is now approaching a pivot point that will decide between bull continuation and a bear cycle. The bull market will die of its own internals when enough people have chased it and enough of the public’s money (scared into bonds, CD’s and money markets in 2008) comes back into stocks. The ‘Great Rotation’ (out of bonds and into stocks) sounds like a big topping story. The Cyprus noise does not. It is why I have been sarcastically writing “Cyprus… Bullish!” at the site lately.

Brief excerpt from the Stock Market – Global segment:

Here is Europe, having declined to a visual support cluster, MACD triggering down but still green (0+), RSI at support and inflammatory stuff going on in Cyprus. Why do I smell a rat if I am a bear? I guess it is because a succession of inflammatory events, e.g. Flash Crash –> PIIGS/Euro/Sovereign Debt Crisis –> US Debt Ceiling –> Greek Austerity Vote –> Fiscal Cliff –> US Debt Ceiling 2 –> and now Cyprus, Cyprus… CYPRUS!! have taught me that highly publicized media events are little more than sparks for new relief phases for the markets.

The fix has been in from a sentiment standpoint (sentiment has backed off from strongly over bullish) and while I believe the US and global markets are now at high risk, I also believe that ‘the’ bull killing event is likely to approach silently. It may already be in progress or it may be months out. But Cyprus probably ain’t it.