Weekly Large Trader COT Report: Currencies
US dollar net speculator positions fell last week to +$23.85 billion
The latest data for the weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report, released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) on Friday, showed that large traders and currency speculators cut back on their overall net bullish positions in the US dollar last week for a fifth consecutive week.
Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, had an overall US dollar long position totaling $23.85 billion as of Tuesday January 26th, according to the latest data from the CFTC and dollar amount calculations by Reuters. This was a weekly change of -$1.18 billion from the $25.03 billion total long position that was registered on January 19th, according to the Reuters calculation that totals the US dollar contracts against the combined contracts of the euro, British pound, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and the Swiss franc.
Last week’s data marks the lowest US dollar speculative level since October 27th of 2015 when net positions stood at $21.60 billion.
Weekly Speculator Contract Changes:
Weekly changes for the major currencies showed that large speculators raised their bets in favor of the euro, Japanese yen and the Australian dollar while decreasing weekly bets for the British pound sterling, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar and the Mexican peso.
Japanese yen positions continued their climb higher for a 5th week in the latest data. However, this data was recorded on Tuesday and prior to the Bank of Japan implementing a negative deposit rate later in the week last week (positions could be highly susceptible to a turnaround in next week’s data).
This latest COT data is through Tuesday January 26th and shows a quick view of how large speculators or non-commercials (for-profit traders) as well as the commercial traders (hedgers and traders for business purposes) were positioned in the futures markets. All currency positions are in direct relation to the US dollar where, for example, a bet for the euro is a bet that the euro will rise versus the dollar while a bet against the euro will be a bet that the dollar will gain versus the euro.
Please see the individual currency charts and their respective data points below. (Click on Charts to Enlarge)
Weekly Charts: Large Trader Weekly Positions vs Price
EuroFX:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151222 | 406533 | 1696 | 182071 | -3240 | -161047 | -1086 |
| 20151229 | 400497 | -6036 | 180422 | -1649 | -160550 | 497 |
| 20160105 | 407105 | 6608 | 179372 | -1050 | -160643 | -93 |
| 20160112 | 398570 | -8535 | 161751 | -17621 | -146451 | 14192 |
| 20160119 | 400362 | 1792 | 147467 | -14284 | -137015 | 9436 |
| 20160126 | 402227 | 1865 | 142818 | -4649 | -127215 | 9800 |
British Pound Sterling:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151222 | 194313 | 28468 | 49672 | 15665 | -26661 | -9741 |
| 20151229 | 204038 | 9725 | 52811 | 3139 | -31022 | -4361 |
| 20160105 | 221993 | 17955 | 54401 | 1590 | -30496 | 526 |
| 20160112 | 238868 | 16875 | 58816 | 4415 | -30521 | -25 |
| 20160119 | 259589 | 20721 | 64795 | 5979 | -38579 | -8058 |
| 20160126 | 272798 | 13209 | 72297 | 7502 | -47537 | -8958 |
Japanese Yen:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151222 | 197375 | 3179 | 50938 | 8352 | -30367 | -3787 |
| 20151229 | 196825 | -550 | 34780 | -16158 | -17226 | 13141 |
| 20160105 | 220707 | 23882 | 4543 | -30237 | 4103 | 21329 |
| 20160112 | 241366 | 20659 | -23845 | -28388 | 25266 | 21163 |
| 20160119 | 247614 | 6248 | -40417 | -16572 | 37653 | 12387 |
| 20160126 | 250711 | 3097 | -54641 | -14224 | 50026 | 12373 |
Swiss Franc:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151222 | 50265 | -2203 | 11803 | 19 | 2752 | 801 |
| 20151229 | 49114 | -1151 | 11937 | 134 | 3564 | 812 |
| 20160105 | 50276 | 1162 | 15078 | 3141 | 3620 | 56 |
| 20160112 | 46428 | -3848 | 12883 | -2195 | 3324 | -296 |
| 20160119 | 49290 | 2862 | 14803 | 1920 | 906 | -2418 |
| 20160126 | 55694 | 6404 | 22174 | 7371 | -4503 | -5409 |
Canadian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151222 | 163581 | -26194 | 76749 | 4777 | -56027 | -5018 |
| 20151229 | 172137 | 8556 | 80673 | 3924 | -60787 | -4760 |
| 20160105 | 166610 | -5527 | 79735 | -938 | -60130 | 657 |
| 20160112 | 166273 | -337 | 78709 | -1026 | -59214 | 916 |
| 20160119 | 165344 | -929 | 82481 | 3772 | -66386 | -7172 |
| 20160126 | 165240 | -104 | 81197 | -1284 | -66819 | -433 |
Australian Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151222 | 106301 | -4237 | 33568 | 12187 | -20854 | -10402 |
| 20151229 | 98174 | -8127 | 28105 | -5463 | -17545 | 3309 |
| 20160105 | 99001 | 827 | 26056 | -2049 | -13761 | 3784 |
| 20160112 | 121590 | 22589 | 46601 | 20545 | -23043 | -9282 |
| 20160119 | 132814 | 11224 | 59902 | 13301 | -36267 | -13224 |
| 20160126 | 125451 | -7363 | 50874 | -9028 | -32798 | 3469 |
New Zealand Dollar:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151222 | 24057 | 431 | 1693 | 1235 | -221 | -1340 |
| 20151229 | 24587 | 530 | 856 | -837 | -146 | 75 |
| 20160105 | 24928 | 341 | 64 | -792 | 1579 | 1725 |
| 20160112 | 25434 | 506 | 320 | 256 | 1541 | -38 |
| 20160119 | 28114 | 2680 | 6003 | 5683 | -2954 | -4495 |
| 20160126 | 30437 | 2323 | 8331 | 2328 | -5400 | -2446 |
Mexican Peso:
Last 6 Weeks of Large Trader Positions
| Date | Open Interest | Change OI | Net Commercial Positions | Weekly Com Changes | Net Large Specs Positions | Weekly Spec Changes |
| 20151222 | 137854 | -6597 | 60677 | -3778 | -56719 | 3653 |
| 20151229 | 139756 | 1902 | 61596 | 919 | -57387 | -668 |
| 20160105 | 143374 | 3618 | 66269 | 4673 | -61988 | -4601 |
| 20160112 | 148683 | 5309 | 78856 | 12587 | -74015 | -12027 |
| 20160119 | 171971 | 23288 | 80363 | 1507 | -76003 | -1988 |
| 20160126 | 167763 | -4208 | 81087 | 724 | -76607 | -604 |
*COT Report: The weekly commitment of traders report summarizes the total trader positions for open contracts in the futures trading markets. The CFTC categorizes trader positions according to commercial hedgers (traders who use futures contracts for hedging as part of the business), non-commercials (large traders who speculate to realize trading profits) and nonreportable traders (usually small traders/speculators). Find CFTC criteria here: (http://www.cftc.gov/MarketReports/CommitmentsofTraders/ExplanatoryNotes/index.htm).
The Commitment of Traders report is published every Friday by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and shows futures positions data that was reported as of the previous Tuesday (3 days behind).
Each currency contract is a quote for that currency directly against the U.S. dollar, a net short amount of contracts means that more speculators are betting that currency to fall against the dollar and a net long position expect that currency to rise versus the dollar.
(The charts overlay the forex closing price of each Tuesday when COT trader positions are reported for each corresponding spot currency pair.) See more information and explanation on the weekly COT report from the CFTC website.
All information contained in this article cannot be guaranteed to be accurate and is used at your own risk. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not in any way constitute investment advice.
Risk Disclosure: Foreign Currency trading and trading on margin carries a high level of risk and can result in loss of part or all of your investment. Due to the level of risk and market volatility, Foreign Currency trading may not be suitable for all investors and you should not invest money you cannot afford to lose. Before deciding to invest in the foreign currency exchange market you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign currency exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor should you have any doubts. All information and opinions on this website are for general informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice.