OPEC+ met in Vienna 2 weeks ago and agreed to meet previous 2023 production targets, and Saudi Arabia announced voluntary cuts of 1 million b/d for one month, possibly extending them.
This is in addition to the other rounds of cuts.
Saudi Arabia tried to calm the markets with an oil price cut but failed to counter recession concerns that still affect oil prices in the futures market.
Shortly after the Silicon Valley Bank (OTCPK: SIVBQ) crash in early March, oil prices also began to fall and have never recovered.
The main reason is that the US economy has not generated as much oil demand as expected.
The USA consumes about 20% of the world's oil, but the demand does not reach pre-pandemic levels.
Many reasons have contributed to the reduction in demand, such as more efficient cars, the increase in the adoption of electric vehicles, and advances in the energy efficiency of buildings.
The strength of the dollar also plays an important role.
Given that much oil is priced in dollars, higher dollar strength can make oil more expensive for non-US countries and, in turn, can help dampen demand.
Voluntary cuts are inefficient because they are short-lived and offer no lasting benefits.
Looking closely at oil supplies, the signs look promising.
OPEC+ has taken recent steps that will inevitably cause an oil shortage for the rest of the year.
According to EIA data, the shortage will reach 350,000 bpd in the second quarter and 1.05 million bpd in the latest quarter.
OPEC also claims more bullish numbers, going from about 500,000 barrels per day lower in the second quarter to 2.64 million per day at the latest.
If demand does not drop dramatically, the market will still suffer from a deficit.
Analyzing oil drilling, it can be seen that the oil supply will remain low.
According to a recent report from the EIA, there have been 4,863 oil wells drilled but not completed in major producing regions of the United States. While that may seem high, it's the lowest since 2014.
Technical analysis shows that short trends are pretty evident: prices are below the short-term moving average. My prediction is that the price of crude oil will reach $63 in the coming quarters.
Disclaimer: The information and Content provided on this site should not be considered an invitation to invest in the financial markets. The Content is a personal opinion of Dr. Antonio Ferlito.