Crude oil prices remain heavy as China continues to have setbacks with its COVID fight. The warnings from key Chinese officials are the primary driver behind oil’s current slump. As we near the European Russian crude ban, it seems the physical markets are already showing most of the effects of those sanctions. Europe has been quickly erasing its dependence on Russian crude and that will continue as we approach the oil price cap deadline.
A potential rail strike could end up being very troubling for the weakening US economy. Rail workers have till early December to reach a new contract agreement (or extend it again as they did for the midterm elections), but until they do this could weigh on the crude demand outlook as supply chain problems will lead to many delays.
Oil is going to have trouble finding a floor with a deteriorating crude demand outlook for both world’s largest economies. Until we get some positive news from either China or the US, the dollar will continue to rebound and crude’s path appears to be headed lower.
Brent crude fell below the $85 level after reports that the Saudis were debating an OPEC+ increase in production as the Russian oil price cap nears. Oil didn’t stand a chance today as both the supply and demand side headlines turned bearish.
Gold
Gold is heading lower this short Thanksgiving week as the king dollar trade makes a comeback. Gold will only be a safe-haven trade if the dollar is in a defensive mode and that is not happening here. Gold needs China’s Covid situation to improve before it can start to look attractive again for investors. If the dollar rally turns excessive, gold could be vulnerable to a plunge towards the $1700 level.