For gold bugs, 2014 promised so much following the precious metal's its long decline in 2013, which saw the gold lose over $500 per ounce. The first quarter of 2014 looked promising, with gold recovering $300 per ounce and climbing back to test the $1,400 per ounce level – heady days. Since then the price of gold has returned to the bearish tone of 2013, and despite some significant attempts to rally, the bears are now back in full control. Last week’s price action delivered a fatal blow on Tuesday, when the December gold futures contract ended the session with a wide spread down candle, breaking below the potential support platform, which until then had held firm.
This was a significant move, given more significance due to the length of the period that this congestion phase had continued, extending from mid April to late May, with the metal trading in a narrow range between $1,315 per ounce to the upside and $1,275 per ounce to the down side. On the day, the price action was also accompanied by high volume, confirming the selling pressure, and validating the strength of bearish sentiment now in place, with gold closing at $1,246.70, after a torrid week. This heavily negative tone was also reflected in the associated volumes later in the week, with a falling market accompanying rising volumes, a strong signal confirming the trend. The question now is how far will gold move in the current bearish phase? The initial target would appear to be the $1,190 per ounce region, which triggered the rally early in the year.
No doubt gold bugs will be hoping for a repeat performance, and if it does hold, then a triple bottom will be in place on the weekly chart. Conversely of course, if this fails to hold, then we could even see gold prices move back to test the $1,000 per ounce level in the much longer term. For longer term gold investors, these are tough times, but for gold speculators, the message is clear – this technical breach looks promising and with plenty of resistance now overhead, expect to see gold test the $1,190 per ounce level in the short term.