CRB Index On The Unlikely Cusp Of Reversing Up

Published 08/19/2012, 03:33 AM
Will this occur? The weekly charts in the last note on the CRB Index suggest that no, its nearly two-year downtrend will remain in effect as it fulfills two bearish Rising Wedges with targets of 246 and 200, respectively.
CRB CHART
However, the daily chart above must be taken very seriously with the CRB Index above the “bearish boundary” found in its 200 DMA and right on the top trendline of its very reliable Descending Trend Channel.

Should the CRB Index continue up, it will transform a Double Top of sorts into a bullish Ascending Triangle, but the minor Rising Wedge at work supports a drop back down into the Descending Trend Channel toward its target of 267.

Levels are the only reliable way to watch this bull and bear sideways drama with the Ascending or Descending Trend Channel the one recommended way to trade a sideways trend per the important CMT text called, fittingly, Technical Analysis and those levels are at 295 and 307.

Above the latter and the CRB Index might just break its trend of lower highs, but below the former and this bearish trend will remain in effect with the direction taken in the coming weeks perhaps an excellent tell on what sort of central bank accommodation, if any, will be ahead with the commodity complex reacting poorly to “previous help” from the ECB while having rallied on Federal Reserve “help” as has been detailed previously.

Considering it seems unlikely that the Fed will be launching QE3 any time too soon, it seems as unlikely that the CRB will succeed in reversing up.

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