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Corn And Ethanol: More COVID-19 And Hurricanes This Season

Published 10/29/2020, 10:01 AM
Updated 07/09/2023, 06:31 AM
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On the hurricane front, Zeta made landfall in Louisiana as a category 2 and is moving rapidly with dangerous Gusts and Winds spreading to Alabama, Georgia, and Virginia. Wind gust could be especially severe across the southern Appalachian Mountains. We will update the damage control as we get them with this fast-moving storm.

On the corn front this market was not alone to nosedive. The December corn had a range of 415 ¼ to 400 ½ but was weak on the close settling at 401 ½ down 14 ½ cents. In some technician’s eyes that was a positive closing above $4. There was a mixed bag of news but the effect of the COVID news and the Stock Market and outside markets pressured the grain complex as well. We do have the Export Sales number this morning that may have some investors put their toe in the water and buy lightly before the election results, as I said testing the waters, but the market looks a little heavy again. In the overnight electronic session, the December corn is currently trading at 398 ¼ which is 3 ¼ cents lower. The trading range has been 404 ¼ to 397 ¼. Higher trade in the U.S. dollar is not helping.

On the ethanol front yesterday’s report showed production was up on the week and down on the year to no-one’s surprise, on the year data, while stocks were down for the week and year. This industry needs a steady dose of good news to pick up on volumes in the cash and futures markets, which we probably will not see or hear until after the election. There were no trades posted in the overnight electronic session. The November ethanol settled at 1.470 and is currently showing 1 bid at 1.320 with o offers and Open Interest down to 35 contracts.

On the crude oil front, the market is still trading on fear with demand destruction from the spike in COVID-19, which prompted other fears and stories that U,S oil production will not 13 million barrels per day(BPD) anytime soon, and demand shortages will keep oil tanker rates low having a trickle-down effect. In the overnight electronic session, the December crude oil is currently trading at 3590 which is 149 points lower. The trading range has been 3776 to 3576.

On the natural gas front, we have the EIA Gas Storage this morning and the Thomson Reuters weekly poll with 16 analysts participating estimate increases ranging from 17bcf to 46bcf with the median injection 38bcf. This compares to the one-year injection of 49bcf and the five-year average build of 52bcf. We are still gathering as much information on Hurricane Zeta and the damage that can be assessed to this fast moving, high speed storm with rains and wind gust that could be really damaging regardless how quick it moved. In the overnight electronic session, the December natural gas is currently trading at 3.249 which is .042 lower. The trading range has been 3.310 to 3.232.

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