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Core Eurozone Bond Yields Trade At Record Lows

Published 07/12/2012, 09:33 AM
Updated 01/01/2017, 02:20 AM

Core eurozone bond yields trade at record lows, amid safe haven demand ahead of China's GDP releaseEconomic Data

(IN) India May Industrial Production Y/Y: 2.4% V 1.8%e

(FR) France June CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% V 0.0%e; Y/Y: 2.3% V 2.2%e

(FR) France June Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0% V 0.0%e; Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.9%e; CPI EX Tobacco Index: 124.78 V 124.69e

(DE) Germany June Wholesale Prices M/M: -1.1% V -0.7% Prior; Y/Y: 1.1% V 1.7% Prior

(RU) Russia Gold and Forex Reserve W/E Jul 6th: $511.4B V $512.9B Prior

(NL) Netherlands May Retail Sales Y/Y: +1.6% V -8.7% Prior

(SE) Sweden June CPI Headline Rate M/M: -0.2% V -0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.0% V 1.0%e; CPI Level: 314.45 V 314.53e

(NL) Netherlands May Trade Balance: €3.6B V €3.9B Prior

(SE) Sweden June CPI Underlying CPI (CPIF) M/M: -0.3% V -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.9% V 1.0%e

(SE) Sweden May Average House Prices (SEK): 2.032M V 1.958M Prior

(CN) China June Foreign Exchange Reserves: $3.24T V $3.36TE ($3.31T in March)

(CN) China June Money Supply M0 Y/Y: 10.8% V 10.6%e; M1 Y/Y: 4.7% V 4.0%e; M2 Y/Y: 13.6% V 13.5%e

(CN) China June New Yuan Loans (CNY): 919.8B V 910.0Be

(CN) China Q2 Change in Forex Reserves Q/Q: -$64.97B v +$123.82B Prior

(CN) China Banking System June Net forex purchase: CNY49.1B v CNY23.4B prior

(EU) Eurozone May Industrial Production M/M: +0.6% V 0.0%e; Y/Y: -2.8% V -3.2%e (Revised From -2.3%)

(GR) Greece April Unemployment Rate: 22.5% V 22.0% Prior

Fixed Income
(IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €7.5B as indicated in 12-month bills; avg yield 2.697% vs. 3.972% prior; bid-to-cover: 1.55X vs. 1.73X prior.

(HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold total HUF61B in 2015, 2017 and 2022 Bonds.

(UK) DMO sold £3.5B in 1.75% Sept 2022 gilts; avg yield 1.72% (record low) vs. 1.92% prior; bid-to-cover: 2.20X vs. 1.63X; tail 0.3 BPS vs. 0.5BPS prior.

Notes/Observations
Core EU sovereign bond yields hit record lows in countries including Austria, Belgium and France.

Use of the ECB's deposit facility declines sharply and moves to lows not seen since late December, amid recent rate cut and maintenance period (€324.9B parked in deposit facility vs. €808.5B prior).

3-month Euribor continues to hit record lows.

Markets show caution ahead of the release of China's Q2 GDP data, commodities broadly lower.

China June new yuan loans higher than expected, while fx reserves miss forecasts.

European equity declines are being led by Spain's IBEX-35, after the index outperformed on yesterday's session.

European equity indices are broadly weaker, while bond yields are also lower.

Spanish and Italy bond yields decline, despite rise in default insurance costs or CDS.

European profit warnings continue (Peugeot, Temenos)

Equities
Indices: FTSE 100 -0.60% at 5630, DAX -0.60% at 6414, CAC-40 -0.30% at 3147, IBEX-35 -1.5% at 6704, FTSE MIB -1% at 13,739, SMI -0.40% at 6149, S&P 500 Futures -0.50% at 1330.

Commodities: Comex Copper Futures -1.4% at $3.41/lb, Gold Futures -$8.00 at $1567oz, Silver Futures -$0.23 at $26.78/oz, NYMEX Crude Futures -$0.80 at $85.04/bbl.

European equity indices have continued to trade in negative territory, following the weaker open, led by the declines in the Spanish IBEX-35. Commodity related shares are broadly weaker ahead of Friday's China quarterly GDP release, while banks are mostly trading lower.

Shares of consulting/marketing services firm Aegis Group [AGS.UK] have gained over 45%, after the company received a £3.2B offer from Japan's Dentsu. In other UK movers, 888 Holdings [888.UK] is higher by over 10% (issued trading update), SuperGroup [SGP.UK] has gained over 10% (issued FY11/12 results), and Associated British Foods [ABF.UK] is trading slightly lower (issued trading update).

In France large retailer Carrefour [CA.FR] has traded higher by over 5%, as the company reported better than expected Q2 sales. Automaker Peugeot [UG.FR] has gained over 2%, as the company announced job cuts. In Switzerland, financial software company Temenos Group [TEMN.CH] is lower by more than 19%, after the company issued a profit warning. In German automakers have trade mixed, amid cautious commentary out of the French automakers, while retailer Metro [MEO.DE] is higher by over 2.5% (tracking gains in Carrefour).

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