Commodity Update: Natural Gas Now Up 20%, Correction On The Way?

lost 0.82% yesterday, failing to close above its 8 day MA the last 2 sessions. My target on the next leg down is $89.25 followed by $87 in November. Heating oil closed lower for the third consecutive session just under its 8 day MA as of this post. If the 50 day MA gives way about 5 cents under current pricing a trade under $3/gallon should follow. Resistance in November is eyed just above $3.14. RBOB lost 1.91% yesterday and was featured as the chart of the day. I’m operating under the influence an interim top was made and we move south from here. First support is seen at the 50 day MA around $2.78 followed by $2.65. Natural gas is up 8 of the last 9 sessions trading above $3.50 for the first time since early January. After a 20% advance I’d not expect much more, but I am not calling a top I’m just saying the easy money has been made and a 25-40 cent correction would not surprise me.

Stock Indices: An inside day in the Dow yesterday, with prices closing under their 9 day MA. 13500 continues to act as stiff resistance as more selling is expected…next hurdle on the downside is the 20 day MA, at 13390 in December futures. Same pattern in the S&P with an inside day closing just under the 20 day MA. I’m expecting lower trade and awaiting confirmation with a breach of the trend line at 1425.

Metals: Gold prices remain elevated but as I’ve stated, the longer prices do not trade above $1800/ounce the less likely they will on this leg. Aggressive traders can probe bearish trade trying to capitalize on a $75-100 drop in the coming weeks. December silver was a slight loser back under $35/ounce and in my eyes taking a deep breath before a dive lower. I think this month we can see prices trade under $32/ounce which would represent a 7.7% decline.

Softs: Cocoa gained 1%, bouncing off the trend line that has supported since early June. Though prices may stall I still think lower trade is likely in the coming weeks. Resistance in December is seen at 2500 with the next support at 2375. March sugar gained 2.18% to complete a 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. In the last 2 weeks since I’ve advised longs it has not been a one way street but prices have appreciated nearly 10%. I expect more upside and would use the Fib levels as upside targets…see previous chart of the day. Cotton may bounce from oversold levels so do not establish fresh trades. Those short should have stops just above the 100 day MA; currently at 72.60 in December. Coffee gained 3.15% yesterday to close at 9 week highs. I did not expect prices to get above $1.82 so I have egg on my face. From here I will not take the trade but prices will likely move to their 200 day MA roughly 7-cents higher…trade accordingly.

Treasuries: Going on 5 sessions December 30-yr bonds have been unable to retake the 150’00 mark. I’ve yet to re-establish bearish trade for clients as I think we can get one more gasp near 151’00 and have advised clients to use that if give the opportunity to fade the rally. If I am correct with my analysis that should translate as a pop in 10-yr notes above 134’00 to open up a sale above that level. That would also bring the NOB spread closer to -17.50/18.00 where I may be willing to re-establish the spread…stay tuned.

Livestock: Live cattle gained 3 out of the last 4 sessions closing back over its 9 day MA yesterday. I like bullish trade thinking this leg drives cattle prices back near $1.30 in December. My favored play is long futures while simultaneously selling out of the money calls. November feeder cattle probed the 9 day MA gaining 0.60% yesterday. While I think higher trade is around the bend I’m content on the sidelines as I see limited upside. I sighted the buying strength in recent sessions in lean hogs and advised shorts to close out a slight loss and I’m glad I did as prices gained 2.3% yesterday and are higher by just better than 3 cents the last 2 sessions. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement puts prices in December near 78 cents and I think we could move even higher…just my opinion. I will be looking for bearish trades for clients from higher levels.

Grains: Corn needs to make a decision and I would play the breakout if a scalper…a trade above the 20 day MA or below the 9 day MA. I like the idea of fading rallies still thinking we could see a sub $7 trade in December futures. November soybeans lost 1.9% yesterday dragging prices to 11 week lows. 20 more cents and a 50% Fibonacci retracement is compete and then the next target would be the gap in the chart from 7/3 at $14.78. Trail stops on bearish trade. Wheat remains a follower and the weakness in the soy market may overshadow the sideways action in corn…look for more pressure. In December my target remains $8.30. Some traders asked about the recent trade recommendation in soybean oil. This was a loser as you should have been stopped out Monday when 52.00 was breached. Lesson: it was a good set up and just a losing trade. Do not probe again until there's a sign of an interim bottom.

Currencies: Day 3 the dollar failed to get above its 20 day MA. We will need to see this in the next few sessions or a move lower will likely resume. Close out short trades in the euro and Swiss with prices back over their 20 day MAs. Traders can remain short the pound as they should have just been established with tight stops. The big loser-- as in prices moved south-- was the Aussie which is good as followers should have bearish exposure. Stay put for now. Traders can be short the Loonie with stops just above their 20 day MA, current risk approximately $550.

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