Concerns over Europe heighten as Moody’s Investors Service lowered Hungary’s credit rating to junk. Taking cues from this, global equities remained under pressure and US stock futures are also trading in the negative territory.
European equities traded lower on news that the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) won’t be enough to increase its capacity up to 1 trillion Euros as intended to tackle with the region’s debt crisis.
Strength in the US dollar exerted pressure on gold prices and the yellow metal declined more than 1 percent in the international markets today.
Spot Gold touched an intra-day low of $1671/oz and was trading around $1676/oz till 4.45 pm IST. MCX Gold December contract declined around 0.6 percent as further fall was resisted on account of Rupee depreciation and prices were hovering around Rs28,381/10 gms till 4.45 pm IST today.
Spot silver prices dropped sharply by 1.7 percent in today’s trade, taking cues from fall in gold prices coupled with a stronger dollar.
In addition to this, being an industrial metal it also took cues from downside in base metals which led to further decline in the white metal. On the MCX, silver declined around 1.4 percent till 4.45 pm IST and was trading at Rs54,500/bbl.
Escalating concerns over Euro Zone debt issues created demand fears for metals, thus exerting downside pressure on the base metals complex today. Additionally, dollar strength also acted as a negative factor for metal prices.
Copper, the leader of the base metals pack, declined sharply by 1.5 percent on the LME and around 0.8 percent on the MCX till 4.45 pm IST today.
Crude oil prices traded with a negative bias today and the commodity is headed for a second weekly decline as rising concerns with respect to the Euro Zone added pressure.
European debt concerns offset the impact of worries that violence in Saudi Arabia could destabilize the world’s largest crude oil exporter. Prices on the MCX near month futures contract corrected almost 1 percent till 4.45pm IST.
Outlook
With escalating worries over the European economic crisis, we expect the US Dollar Index to strengthen. This factor is expected to add downside pressure on bullion prices today.
Base metals and crude oil are expected to trade lower, as risk aversion coupled with dollar strength will act as a negative factor.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Nymex crude oil prices rose 1.3 percent yesterday on the back of expected winter demand for the commodity.
Oil prices touched an intra-day high of $97.31/bbl and closed at $97.03/bbl yesterday.
On account of Thanks Giving day the Nymex markets were closed yesterday but electronic trading continued.
On the MCX, Crude oil December contract declined around 0.2 percent on Thursday mainly on account of appreciation on the Indian Rupee.
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices surged more than 3 percent on Thursday mainly on account of expected demand for the commodity from the colder regions for heating purposes.
Prices on the MCX declined on account of a stronger Rupee on Thursday.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Gold prices rose marginally by 0.1 percent on Thursday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the markets.
The yellow metal touched an intraday high of $1701/oz and ended its trading session at the level of $1694/oz yesterday.
On the MCX, Gold December contract slipped around 0.8 percent on account of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and touched an intra-day low of Rs28, 518/10 gms yesterday.
Silver
Spot silver prices gained around 0.2 percent on Thursday touching an intra-day high of $32.20/oz and closed at $31.8/oz.
However, sharp gains were capped as silver being an industrial metal also took cues from downside in base metals too.
MCX Silver December contract declined sharply by more than 1 percent and touched an intra-day low of Rs55,042/kg on Thursday.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Black pepper prices bounced back from the support levels owing to buying by the market participants and settled 2.01% higher on Thursday.
Reports of lower pepper crop in India in 2011-12 are expected to support pepper prices.
Lower stocks with Vietnam and Indonesia, the major suppliers of pepper till fresh arrivals commence next year (April and July respectively) will also support prices.
Indian parity in the international market was at $7,450 a tonne and remained competitive and was attracting overseas orders while Vietnam 550 gl was quoting its pepper at $7,500 per tonne.
Exports from the major countries
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 11,250 tonnes as compared to 9,250 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 22%.
According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black pepper during January to September 2011 exports of pepper from six major exporting countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka) was around 188,000 mt, 4% lower from the corresponding period of 195,000 mt. Vietnam has reportedly sold 1.12 lakh tonnes of pepper from January to September 2011 a rise of 14% as compared to previous year.
Sharp fall of 38% in pepper exports was witnessed in Indonesia during above period. Exports stood at 26,300 tonnes as compared to 42,082 tonnes in the last year.
During Jan to Oct 2011, Brazil exported 25,331 tonnes of pepper a rise of 4.74% as compared to previous year. U.S. remained the major destination of the pepper imports.
39thsession and meeting of IPC scheduled on 22nd-26th November 2011 in Lombok Island, Indonesia
39th session of the IPC meet is scheduled on 22nd – 26th November 2011 in Indonesia and theme of the session is “Global Strategy and Innovation for Sustainable Pepper production, price and Quality”.
Production and Arrivals
Arrivals of pepper in the domestic mandi on Thursday stood at 10 tonnes as compared to 20 tonnes on Wednesday. Offtakes on the other hand stood at 25 tonnes.
Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 4% to 2.70 lakh tonnes with Vietnam the largest producer producing around 1.40-1.50 tonnes. Carryover stocks are projected at 50,000 tonnes as compared to 60,000 tonnes in 2011. (Source: Peppertradeboard). While, production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to be 43 thousand tonnes according to the market sources a decline of 5% as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX December soybean futures traded lower on account of weak overseas market as bad economic news in China for their manufactures index. Arrivals of soybean in Madhya Pradesh were around 3 lakh bags (bag=100 kg).
USDA’s weekly export sales released on Thursday (November 17, 2011) which shows that the Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 746,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 5,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 751,200. This was higher than expected and included sales to China of 517,100 tonnes. Meal sales came in at 201,500 tonnes which was also higher than expected. Oil sales were just 2,100 tonnes which was well below expectations.
USDA’s monthly S&D report released on Wednesday (November 09, 2011) which shows slightly higher global oilseeds production estimates and higher ending stocks. Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 454.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month.
Brazil soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to 75 million.
Mustard Seed
NCDEX December RM Seed futures ended mildly higher due to improved demand of RM seed from millers.
Rajasthan government has targeted mustard acreage for 2011-12 season at 30 lakh hectares compared to 24.9 lakh ha in 2010-11 season. As on November 22, 2011, sowing has been completed more than 80% area with total area covered so far standing around 24.29 lakh ha.
Refine Soy Oil
NCDEX December Refined Soy oil futures ended lower on account of weak overseas market as euro zone debt concern. China has cancelled orders for up to 300,000 tonnes of refined palm oil over the past month as some traders had over-booked cargoes and domestic prices remain lower than that of imports also added bearish market sentiments. India won't hike the base price of imported refined edible oils immediately to prevent any price rise in the local market.
India levies a 7.5% import tax on refined oil, but the duty is calculated on the basis of base prices fixed by the government and not the market price. Imports of crude edible oil are tax-free.
As per SGS ( a cargo surveyor), Malaysia's palm oil exports during the November 1-20, unchanged from a month earlier to 1.03 million tons.
As per another cargo surveyor (Intertek Agri Services), Malaysia's palm oil exports during the November 1-20, rose 0.6% from a month earlier.
India’s Vegetable Oil Imports:
According to Solvent Extractors Association of India, India’s import of vegetable oil in the month of October 2011 was 8.78 lakh tonnes, up 12% as compared to 7.81 lakh tonnes in October 2010. However, from November 2010 to October 2011 (Oil Marketing year), India’s import of vegetable oil was 83.71 lakh tonnes, fell more than 5% as compared to last edible oil marketing year of 88.23 lakh tonne.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Sugar Futures witnessed rangebound trades throughout the day and settled 0.40% lower on Thursday. Crushing of cane in the major growing areas particularly Maharashtra and U.P have gained momentum which is seen pressurizing prices. Late evening on Tuesday (November 22, 2011) government allowed exports of 1 million tonnes of sugar under Open General Licence (OGL) and removed the stock limit on sugar from December 1, 2011.
Currently (till November 30, 2011) sugar traders were not allowed to hold more than 500 tonnes of sugar.
Crushing in U.P the largest grower of the sweetener have started to gain momentum with about 60% of the 125 mills functioning. So far the mills had crushed nearly 2.9 million tonnes of cane producing 2.30 lakh tonnes of sugar. (Source: Business standard)
ICE Raw Sugar futures and LIFFE continued to trade weak and touched 6 month low owing to lingering concerns of Euro debt crisis. Approval of exports of sugar from India of 1 million tonnes and global economic worries is also keeping prices weak.
The Brazil white Sugar prices have declined to $ 657 /tn last week ended 19th Nov, 2011 compared to $680-685 per tonne (FOB), in the previous week. Current offer prices stands at Rs 32900 per ton in rupee terms compared to current domestic price of Rs 31000 / tn FOB.
Domestic Sugar updates
Cane output in Maharashtra is expected to rise to 82.5 mn tn during 2011-12 from 80.3 mn tn last year, while sugar output is likely to increase about 2.5% to 9.3 mn tn.
Indian Sugarcane production is estimated higher by 0.9% at 342 mn tn for 2011-12 season starting October 1, 2011. ISMA has projected sugar production at 26 million tonnes for 2011-12.
With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 32 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 23 mn tn. Thus there is a wide scope for exports from India.
Global Sugar Updates
According to UNICA, Sugar production in Brazil's center-south in the second half of Oct dipped 23.5 percent from a year ago, as more mills ended crushing the 2011/12 cane crop. Sugar output totaled 1.47 million tonnes, down from 1.92 million tonnes a year earlier. Eighty-nine out of the 310 existing mills in the region had concluded crushing by Nov. 1.
China, the world's largest sugar consumer, has imported 1.6 million tons of sugar in the first 11 months of 2011, with preliminary data for the full year likely to be issued around October 10.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Chana futures witnessed mixed trades throughout the day tracking dull trades at the domestic and settled 0.06% lower on Thursday. Spot prices ended 1.59 % lower yesterday.
There are reports that supplies in the global markets are tight. This will make imports costlier. Further, reports of lower sowing under pulses in A.P. and Karnataka due to dry spell are likely to provide support to the prices.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, pulses have been sown in 49.75 lakh hectares as on November 18th 2011 as compared to 46.33 lakh hectares in the last year same period.
Sowing to Chana in Maharashtra was up by 64.6% to 3.4 lakh hectares as compared to 2.06 lakh hectares in the same period previous year.
Area sown under Chana in Rajasthan till 22nd November 2011 was 14.59 lakh hectares (lh) as compared to 11.81 lh in the same period previous year.
There are reports of decline in the output of dry peas and Chickpeas in Canada for 2011. Chickpeas output is expected to fall by 58% to 54 MT while that of peas will fall by 33% to 2 MT (Source: Agriwatch)
Pulses Imports
Imports have declined dramatically in the current FY 2011-12 with India's state-owned trading agencies having contracted imports of only 121,660 tn pulses since the beginning of the current financial year till September 12, 2011 compared with 596,700 tn during the same period last year.
Imports have been weak because domestic pulses output in 2010-11 (Jul- Jun) was at an all time high of 18.09 mln tn, up 23percent from a year ago. Also, the Centre has abolished one of the reimbursement schemes for the state-owned importing agencies.
Sowing progress and Production
Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn.
Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. If the sowing trend is maintained India may witness another bumper crop of Chana in the coming season.
According to the first advance estimates, Kharif Pulses output for 2011- 12 season is down by 9.6% at 6.43 mt. Tur output estimates is up by 0.35% while moong & Urad is down by 21% & 16% respectively. Kharif Pulses sowing is down by 9% as on 23rd September, 2011. 109.41 lakh ha has been covered against 120.3 lakh ha in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Guar spot prices and Futures traded weak in the early part of the trading session and touched lower freeze of 2% but bounced back from the support levels and settled near upper freeze of 3.28% and 3.98% respectively on Thursday. Prices had fallen by 5.25% in the last two trading session on unconfirmed reports that government might withdraw export promotion incentive and impose export duty on Guargum of around 20%.
Arrivals of Late sown Guar crop has started across Churu, Bikaner and other growing areas of Rajasthan and thus arrivals have increased in the last 2-3 days and stands around 1 lakh bags. However, arrivals are not expected to cross 1.2 lakh tonnes as harvesting of early sown Guar crop (Guari) is almost completed.
Weaker rupee is seen gearing up exporter’s profit margin. However, export demand may hit to some extent amidst higher prices and weaker rupee.
On the back of record high exports, the exports federation has urged the Government to withdraw export promotion incentives and impose export duty on guar seeds
Production
Guar seed output in Rajasthan is estimated at 11.36 lakh tonnes for 2011-12 season compared to 15.46 lakh tonnes in 2010-11 (Rajasthan Farm Dept).
Production of Guar in Haryana and Gujarat is expected to be 0.2 lakh tonnes and 0.07 lakh tonnes respectively in 2011-12.
However, there are unconfirmed reports that Guar seed output may be lower around 10 lakh tonnes compared to the government target of 11.3 lakh tonne due to excess moisture in the soil during the sowing period.
Exports
According to Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, Indian Guar gum exports for the period April- March 2010-11 surged by 84% and stood at 4,03,007 tonnes as compared to 2,18,473 tonnes during the last year.
Exports of Guar gum from April to June of the current fiscal year 2011-12 stood at 1.45 lakh tn compared to 0.71 lakh tn during the same period last year.
Exporters believe that exports which had crossed over 4 lakh tn last year, may hit this year due on financial crisis in U.S & Europe along with shift in demand. Further weaker rupee may also affect export volumes.
However the export figures clearly indicates that global crisis has not hit Guar exports as of now in the current season too.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
European equities traded lower on news that the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) won’t be enough to increase its capacity up to 1 trillion Euros as intended to tackle with the region’s debt crisis.
Strength in the US dollar exerted pressure on gold prices and the yellow metal declined more than 1 percent in the international markets today.
Spot Gold touched an intra-day low of $1671/oz and was trading around $1676/oz till 4.45 pm IST. MCX Gold December contract declined around 0.6 percent as further fall was resisted on account of Rupee depreciation and prices were hovering around Rs28,381/10 gms till 4.45 pm IST today.
Spot silver prices dropped sharply by 1.7 percent in today’s trade, taking cues from fall in gold prices coupled with a stronger dollar.
In addition to this, being an industrial metal it also took cues from downside in base metals which led to further decline in the white metal. On the MCX, silver declined around 1.4 percent till 4.45 pm IST and was trading at Rs54,500/bbl.
Escalating concerns over Euro Zone debt issues created demand fears for metals, thus exerting downside pressure on the base metals complex today. Additionally, dollar strength also acted as a negative factor for metal prices.
Copper, the leader of the base metals pack, declined sharply by 1.5 percent on the LME and around 0.8 percent on the MCX till 4.45 pm IST today.
Crude oil prices traded with a negative bias today and the commodity is headed for a second weekly decline as rising concerns with respect to the Euro Zone added pressure.
European debt concerns offset the impact of worries that violence in Saudi Arabia could destabilize the world’s largest crude oil exporter. Prices on the MCX near month futures contract corrected almost 1 percent till 4.45pm IST.
Outlook
With escalating worries over the European economic crisis, we expect the US Dollar Index to strengthen. This factor is expected to add downside pressure on bullion prices today.
Base metals and crude oil are expected to trade lower, as risk aversion coupled with dollar strength will act as a negative factor.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Crude oil edges higher on global seasonal demand
Nymex crude oil prices rose 1.3 percent yesterday on the back of expected winter demand for the commodity.
Oil prices touched an intra-day high of $97.31/bbl and closed at $97.03/bbl yesterday.
On account of Thanks Giving day the Nymex markets were closed yesterday but electronic trading continued.
On the MCX, Crude oil December contract declined around 0.2 percent on Thursday mainly on account of appreciation on the Indian Rupee.
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices surged more than 3 percent on Thursday mainly on account of expected demand for the commodity from the colder regions for heating purposes.
Prices on the MCX declined on account of a stronger Rupee on Thursday.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Precious metals finish higher on Euro debt concerns
Gold prices rose marginally by 0.1 percent on Thursday on the back of rise in risk aversion in the markets.
The yellow metal touched an intraday high of $1701/oz and ended its trading session at the level of $1694/oz yesterday.
On the MCX, Gold December contract slipped around 0.8 percent on account of appreciation in the Indian Rupee and touched an intra-day low of Rs28, 518/10 gms yesterday.
Silver
Spot silver prices gained around 0.2 percent on Thursday touching an intra-day high of $32.20/oz and closed at $31.8/oz.
However, sharp gains were capped as silver being an industrial metal also took cues from downside in base metals too.
MCX Silver December contract declined sharply by more than 1 percent and touched an intra-day low of Rs55,042/kg on Thursday.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India turmeric falls on higher arrivals
Turmeric Spot and Futures after remaining firm witnessed weakness and settled 0.34% and 1.30% lower respectively on Thursday.
Increased arrivals amidst lacklustre demand led prices to fall yesterday.
Sharp gains may however be capped on account of sufficient availability of Turmeric in the major mandis.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad stood at 1,000 bags while Erode market witnessed arrivals of 10,000 bags on Thursday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at 82 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. However, area covered under turmeric till 21st September 2011 stood at 0.67 lakh ha 2.9% lower as compared to 0.69 lakh ha in the previous year.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 41,500 tonnes as compared to 28,500 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 46%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Increased arrivals amidst lacklustre demand led prices to fall yesterday.
Sharp gains may however be capped on account of sufficient availability of Turmeric in the major mandis.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad stood at 1,000 bags while Erode market witnessed arrivals of 10,000 bags on Thursday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at 82 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. However, area covered under turmeric till 21st September 2011 stood at 0.67 lakh ha 2.9% lower as compared to 0.69 lakh ha in the previous year.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 41,500 tonnes as compared to 28,500 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 46%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India jeera edges higher on extended buying
Jeera prices traded weak in the early part of the trading session but bounced back owing to improved buying at the support levels and settled 1.69% higher on Thursday. Prices at the Spot and Futures settled 0.17% and 0.89% lower respectively on Wednesday.
Sowing of jeera in Rajasthan has gained momentum due to favorable weather condition. Sowing of Jeera has also commenced in some parts of Gujarat but it is on slow pace. Carryover stocks of jeera is expected to be around 9-10 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.
Prices in the global markets of Indian origin are quoting around $2,800-2,950/tn while Syrian origin is quoting at $3,100-$3,150/tn.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Unjha markets witnessed steady arrivals of 3,500 bags amidst offtakes of 3,000 bags on Thursday.
Production of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 22 lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders).
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 16,000 tonnes as compared to 18,800 tonnes in 2010-11, decline of 15%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Prices in the global markets of Indian origin are quoting around $2,800-2,950/tn while Syrian origin is quoting at $3,100-$3,150/tn.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Unjha markets witnessed steady arrivals of 3,500 bags amidst offtakes of 3,000 bags on Thursday.
Production of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 22 lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders).
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 16,000 tonnes as compared to 18,800 tonnes in 2010-11, decline of 15%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India pepper bounces back on fresh buying
Black pepper prices bounced back from the support levels owing to buying by the market participants and settled 2.01% higher on Thursday.
Reports of lower pepper crop in India in 2011-12 are expected to support pepper prices.
Lower stocks with Vietnam and Indonesia, the major suppliers of pepper till fresh arrivals commence next year (April and July respectively) will also support prices.
Indian parity in the international market was at $7,450 a tonne and remained competitive and was attracting overseas orders while Vietnam 550 gl was quoting its pepper at $7,500 per tonne.
Exports from the major countries
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 11,250 tonnes as compared to 9,250 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 22%.
According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black pepper during January to September 2011 exports of pepper from six major exporting countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka) was around 188,000 mt, 4% lower from the corresponding period of 195,000 mt. Vietnam has reportedly sold 1.12 lakh tonnes of pepper from January to September 2011 a rise of 14% as compared to previous year.
Sharp fall of 38% in pepper exports was witnessed in Indonesia during above period. Exports stood at 26,300 tonnes as compared to 42,082 tonnes in the last year.
During Jan to Oct 2011, Brazil exported 25,331 tonnes of pepper a rise of 4.74% as compared to previous year. U.S. remained the major destination of the pepper imports.
39thsession and meeting of IPC scheduled on 22nd-26th November 2011 in Lombok Island, Indonesia
39th session of the IPC meet is scheduled on 22nd – 26th November 2011 in Indonesia and theme of the session is “Global Strategy and Innovation for Sustainable Pepper production, price and Quality”.
Production and Arrivals
Arrivals of pepper in the domestic mandi on Thursday stood at 10 tonnes as compared to 20 tonnes on Wednesday. Offtakes on the other hand stood at 25 tonnes.
Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 4% to 2.70 lakh tonnes with Vietnam the largest producer producing around 1.40-1.50 tonnes. Carryover stocks are projected at 50,000 tonnes as compared to 60,000 tonnes in 2011. (Source: Peppertradeboard). While, production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to be 43 thousand tonnes according to the market sources a decline of 5% as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India soybean to weaken on global cues
NCDEX December soybean futures traded lower on account of weak overseas market as bad economic news in China for their manufactures index. Arrivals of soybean in Madhya Pradesh were around 3 lakh bags (bag=100 kg).
USDA’s weekly export sales released on Thursday (November 17, 2011) which shows that the Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 746,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 5,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 751,200. This was higher than expected and included sales to China of 517,100 tonnes. Meal sales came in at 201,500 tonnes which was also higher than expected. Oil sales were just 2,100 tonnes which was well below expectations.
USDA’s monthly S&D report released on Wednesday (November 09, 2011) which shows slightly higher global oilseeds production estimates and higher ending stocks. Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 454.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month.
Brazil soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to 75 million.
Mustard Seed
NCDEX December RM Seed futures ended mildly higher due to improved demand of RM seed from millers.
Rajasthan government has targeted mustard acreage for 2011-12 season at 30 lakh hectares compared to 24.9 lakh ha in 2010-11 season. As on November 22, 2011, sowing has been completed more than 80% area with total area covered so far standing around 24.29 lakh ha.
Refine Soy Oil
NCDEX December Refined Soy oil futures ended lower on account of weak overseas market as euro zone debt concern. China has cancelled orders for up to 300,000 tonnes of refined palm oil over the past month as some traders had over-booked cargoes and domestic prices remain lower than that of imports also added bearish market sentiments. India won't hike the base price of imported refined edible oils immediately to prevent any price rise in the local market.
India levies a 7.5% import tax on refined oil, but the duty is calculated on the basis of base prices fixed by the government and not the market price. Imports of crude edible oil are tax-free.
As per SGS ( a cargo surveyor), Malaysia's palm oil exports during the November 1-20, unchanged from a month earlier to 1.03 million tons.
As per another cargo surveyor (Intertek Agri Services), Malaysia's palm oil exports during the November 1-20, rose 0.6% from a month earlier.
India’s Vegetable Oil Imports:
According to Solvent Extractors Association of India, India’s import of vegetable oil in the month of October 2011 was 8.78 lakh tonnes, up 12% as compared to 7.81 lakh tonnes in October 2010. However, from November 2010 to October 2011 (Oil Marketing year), India’s import of vegetable oil was 83.71 lakh tonnes, fell more than 5% as compared to last edible oil marketing year of 88.23 lakh tonne.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India sugar ends lower on cane crushing
Sugar Futures witnessed rangebound trades throughout the day and settled 0.40% lower on Thursday. Crushing of cane in the major growing areas particularly Maharashtra and U.P have gained momentum which is seen pressurizing prices. Late evening on Tuesday (November 22, 2011) government allowed exports of 1 million tonnes of sugar under Open General Licence (OGL) and removed the stock limit on sugar from December 1, 2011.
Currently (till November 30, 2011) sugar traders were not allowed to hold more than 500 tonnes of sugar.
Crushing in U.P the largest grower of the sweetener have started to gain momentum with about 60% of the 125 mills functioning. So far the mills had crushed nearly 2.9 million tonnes of cane producing 2.30 lakh tonnes of sugar. (Source: Business standard)
ICE Raw Sugar futures and LIFFE continued to trade weak and touched 6 month low owing to lingering concerns of Euro debt crisis. Approval of exports of sugar from India of 1 million tonnes and global economic worries is also keeping prices weak.
The Brazil white Sugar prices have declined to $ 657 /tn last week ended 19th Nov, 2011 compared to $680-685 per tonne (FOB), in the previous week. Current offer prices stands at Rs 32900 per ton in rupee terms compared to current domestic price of Rs 31000 / tn FOB.
Domestic Sugar updates
Cane output in Maharashtra is expected to rise to 82.5 mn tn during 2011-12 from 80.3 mn tn last year, while sugar output is likely to increase about 2.5% to 9.3 mn tn.
Indian Sugarcane production is estimated higher by 0.9% at 342 mn tn for 2011-12 season starting October 1, 2011. ISMA has projected sugar production at 26 million tonnes for 2011-12.
With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 32 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 23 mn tn. Thus there is a wide scope for exports from India.
Global Sugar Updates
According to UNICA, Sugar production in Brazil's center-south in the second half of Oct dipped 23.5 percent from a year ago, as more mills ended crushing the 2011/12 cane crop. Sugar output totaled 1.47 million tonnes, down from 1.92 million tonnes a year earlier. Eighty-nine out of the 310 existing mills in the region had concluded crushing by Nov. 1.
China, the world's largest sugar consumer, has imported 1.6 million tons of sugar in the first 11 months of 2011, with preliminary data for the full year likely to be issued around October 10.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India chana to settle lower on subdued demand
Chana futures witnessed mixed trades throughout the day tracking dull trades at the domestic and settled 0.06% lower on Thursday. Spot prices ended 1.59 % lower yesterday.
There are reports that supplies in the global markets are tight. This will make imports costlier. Further, reports of lower sowing under pulses in A.P. and Karnataka due to dry spell are likely to provide support to the prices.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture, pulses have been sown in 49.75 lakh hectares as on November 18th 2011 as compared to 46.33 lakh hectares in the last year same period.
Sowing to Chana in Maharashtra was up by 64.6% to 3.4 lakh hectares as compared to 2.06 lakh hectares in the same period previous year.
Area sown under Chana in Rajasthan till 22nd November 2011 was 14.59 lakh hectares (lh) as compared to 11.81 lh in the same period previous year.
There are reports of decline in the output of dry peas and Chickpeas in Canada for 2011. Chickpeas output is expected to fall by 58% to 54 MT while that of peas will fall by 33% to 2 MT (Source: Agriwatch)
Pulses Imports
Imports have declined dramatically in the current FY 2011-12 with India's state-owned trading agencies having contracted imports of only 121,660 tn pulses since the beginning of the current financial year till September 12, 2011 compared with 596,700 tn during the same period last year.
Imports have been weak because domestic pulses output in 2010-11 (Jul- Jun) was at an all time high of 18.09 mln tn, up 23percent from a year ago. Also, the Centre has abolished one of the reimbursement schemes for the state-owned importing agencies.
Sowing progress and Production
Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn.
Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. If the sowing trend is maintained India may witness another bumper crop of Chana in the coming season.
According to the first advance estimates, Kharif Pulses output for 2011- 12 season is down by 9.6% at 6.43 mt. Tur output estimates is up by 0.35% while moong & Urad is down by 21% & 16% respectively. Kharif Pulses sowing is down by 9% as on 23rd September, 2011. 109.41 lakh ha has been covered against 120.3 lakh ha in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India guar seed surges on short covering
Guar spot prices and Futures traded weak in the early part of the trading session and touched lower freeze of 2% but bounced back from the support levels and settled near upper freeze of 3.28% and 3.98% respectively on Thursday. Prices had fallen by 5.25% in the last two trading session on unconfirmed reports that government might withdraw export promotion incentive and impose export duty on Guargum of around 20%.
Arrivals of Late sown Guar crop has started across Churu, Bikaner and other growing areas of Rajasthan and thus arrivals have increased in the last 2-3 days and stands around 1 lakh bags. However, arrivals are not expected to cross 1.2 lakh tonnes as harvesting of early sown Guar crop (Guari) is almost completed.
Weaker rupee is seen gearing up exporter’s profit margin. However, export demand may hit to some extent amidst higher prices and weaker rupee.
On the back of record high exports, the exports federation has urged the Government to withdraw export promotion incentives and impose export duty on guar seeds
Production
Guar seed output in Rajasthan is estimated at 11.36 lakh tonnes for 2011-12 season compared to 15.46 lakh tonnes in 2010-11 (Rajasthan Farm Dept).
Production of Guar in Haryana and Gujarat is expected to be 0.2 lakh tonnes and 0.07 lakh tonnes respectively in 2011-12.
However, there are unconfirmed reports that Guar seed output may be lower around 10 lakh tonnes compared to the government target of 11.3 lakh tonne due to excess moisture in the soil during the sowing period.
Exports
According to Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, Indian Guar gum exports for the period April- March 2010-11 surged by 84% and stood at 4,03,007 tonnes as compared to 2,18,473 tonnes during the last year.
Exports of Guar gum from April to June of the current fiscal year 2011-12 stood at 1.45 lakh tn compared to 0.71 lakh tn during the same period last year.
Exporters believe that exports which had crossed over 4 lakh tn last year, may hit this year due on financial crisis in U.S & Europe along with shift in demand. Further weaker rupee may also affect export volumes.
However the export figures clearly indicates that global crisis has not hit Guar exports as of now in the current season too.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities