Base metals settle lower on Euro debt concernsThe base metals complex traded lower on the LME on Monday with nickel being an exception. Rising tensions with respect to Europe’s and US debt issues coupled with weak sentiments in the global markets exerted pressure on prices.
In addition to this, a stronger dollar also acted as a negative factor for the metal prices yesterday. However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned further losses on the Indian platform on Monday.
Nickel:
Nickel was the only base metal to witness rise in yesterday’s trade. The metal rose around 0.3 percent on the LME and around 1.2 percent on the MCX on Monday. Nickel inventories declined sharply by 1 percent to 83,940 tonnes on the LME warehouse yesterday.
China’s refined copper imports rose 74pct (y-o-y) in October According to the data from the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of refined copper increased sharply by almost 74 percent(y-o-y) to reach the level of 295,341 tonnes in the month of October and on a monthly basis, imports rose 7.2 percent in October from the previous figures of 275,499 tonnes in September.
China’s export for refined copper declined by almost 80 percent (y-o-y) to 322 tonnes in October, while the metal exports rose sharply by 516 percent (y-o-y) to 153,912 tonnes in the first ten months of 2011.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Crude oil edges lower on global demand concerns
Nymex crude oil prices declined by 0.5 percent taking cues from weak market sentiments coupled with a stronger dollar.
Oil prices touched a low of $95.24/bbl and closed at $96.9/bbl yesterday. On the MCX, oil prices gained by 0.6 percent on the back of Rupee depreciation and closed at Rs.5038/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.5054/bbl on Monday.
API Inventories Forecast
The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 0.5 million barrels for the week ending on 18th November 2011. Gasoline stocks are expected to increase by 1 million barrels and distillate inventories are expected to decline by 1.5 million barrels.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Precious metals tumble on dollar strength
Gold declined sharply by 2.4 percent in yesterday’s trade, on account of dollar strength. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $1665/oz and closed at the level of $1681/oz on Monday.
On the MCX, Gold December contract declined around 0.6 percent as depreciation in the Indian Rupee resisted further fall on the domestic bourses and touched an intra-day low of Rs28, 339/10 gms yesterday.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, world's largest gold-backed exchange traded- fund (ETF), declined around 0.2 percent to 1,291.27 tonnes on 21st November 2011 from the previous 1293.09 tonnes on 18th November.
Silver
Taking cues from decline in gold prices, downside in base metals and dollar strength, spot silver prices slipped around 2 percent on Monday.
Silver touched an intra-day low of $30.63/oz and ended at $31.7/oz yesterday. On the MCX, Silver December contract declined around 1.8 percent and touched an intra-day low of Rs53,880/kg on Monday.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Base metals drop in unison with global shares, nickel gains
Except Nickel all other metals traded lower and ended by more than two per cent on yesterday’s trading session. Such fall was noticed owing to slump in equity markets and marginally strengthening US dollar on previous session.
Metal prices also declined taking cues from entire commodity market sell off. Surprisingly, today morning metal prices at Shanghai and London are all seen trading higher by more than one per cent. Asian equities have recovered from their early losses and currently trading marginally positive, after Moody’s and Fitch maintained their US credit scores even after the congress budget super committee failed to reach the agreement on reducing the government deficit.
Moody’s however has maintained its negative outlook and Fitch said it expects to conclude a review on the US sovereign rating by the end of month. Going ahead European equities should play out the role. Looking into the economic releases host of data are expected from US and GDP data would be one of the crucial data to watch for.
Overall, we see metal prices are moving on news based trend and more prone towards the economic development and not able to set a defined trend.
The commodity Nickel is looking positive as of now because the spot demand seems to be picking up in other word could say cancelled warrant ratios are improving that is pushing metal to move higher. However, other metals are trading in broad range for the past few sessions. Overall, we may expect metals to trade flat with a marginal upside movement.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices declined by -2.04 per cent along with lower cancelled warrant ratios suggesting the bearish trend is still intact.
There is no such major activities from industry however, in the future exchange the OI is improving along with lower price and volume suggesting the trend is still bearish.
The spread between two future contracts have declined from 0.90 to 0.60 paisa.
Copper
Although prices have declined by 2.86 per cent but the cancelled warrants ratio have improved substantially suggesting prices may show some sort of recovery in the trend in the near term.
The spread between November and February future is around Rs. 5-6 and likely to shrink in the near Term .
Lead
Lead prices fell the most by more than three per cent to settle the day at $1993 levels while at MCX Lead prices ended down by -1.05 per cent owing INR depreciation.
Cancelled warrants have improved substantially in the recent suggesting probable trend might reverse in the near term.
Nickel
Nickel was the out performer among the metal complex and ended up by 0.82 per cent at $17800 levels.
The cancelled warrant ratios are supportive for the price trend.
Zinc
Zinc prices also fell along with other metals trend and ended down by 2.54 per cent at $1915 level.
The cancelled warrant ratios are looking to be slightly improving may support this commodity to perform better in the near term.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
CBOT Updates:Soybean falls on technical selling
CHICAGO(Commodity Online): US soybean futures fell to 13-month lows as the market was caught in the tailwinds of a broad-based risk-off trading environment.
Fear of a global economic slowdown amid worries about European sovereign debt and the failure of the US supercommittee to reach agreement on a plan to help reduce the federal deficit encouraged traders to reduce risk exposure.
Technical selling accelerated the declines, with selling gathering momentum after prices dipped below last week's lows.
CBOT January soybeans end down 2 1/4c at $11.48/bushel.
Courtesy: CME Group
CBOT Updates:Wheat drops on selling pressure
CHICAGO(Commodity Online): US soybean futures fell to 13-month lows as the market was caught in the tailwinds of a broad-based risk-off trading environment.
Fear of a global economic slowdown amid worries about European sovereign debt and the failure of the US supercommittee to reach agreement on a plan to help reduce the federal deficit encouraged traders to reduce risk exposure.
Technical selling accelerated the declines, with selling gathering momentum after prices dipped below last week's lows.
CBOT January soybeans end down 2 1/4c at $11.48/bushel.
Courtesy: CME Group
NCDEX maize gains on firm domestic demand
Maize futures remained very mixed on Monday as the arrivals and the demand played an equal role in driving the prices.
Arrivals season is limiting the steep upside while poultry sector demand for maize is preventing any steep fall in prices.
Arrivals in Davangere and Nizamabad remained stable and prices surged marginally by Rs.10/quintal on average.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India soy complex extends uptrend on weak arrivals
Soybean prices extended gains on Monday as the market arrivals touched 3,50,000 bags in Indore alone while the prices remained stable.
The market arrivals were reported to be much lower than last year which helped Indian prices to gain substantially.
CBOT prices ended at 13 month low as broad based sell off in the commodities affected the soybean prices. Completion of the harvesting and pressure of the total crop availability affected the prices.
Soy oil prices closed down side towards end of the day as the palm oil prices in the international markets further weakened towards closing.
At CBOT soy oil prices fell substantially due to broad based sell of in commodities and weakness in bean prices. Stumbling crude oil prices also took along the dibble oil prices and ended the day in losses.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
India turmeric regains on seasonal demand
Winter season demand from the north Indian stockists led Spot and Futures to settle 1.17% and 0.04% higher on Monday. There are some reports of crop damage in A.P due to in adequate rainfall in the month of October. Crop damage would be around 10%. This is likely to provide support to the prices.
Sharp gains may however be capped on account of sufficient availability of Turmeric in the major mandis.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad stood at 1,000 bags while Erode market witnessed arrivals of 8,000 bags on Monday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at 82 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. However, area covered under turmeric till 21st September 2011 stood at 0.67 lakh ha 2.9% lower as compared to 0.69 lakh ha in the previous year.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 41,500 tonnes as compared to 28,500 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 46%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India jeera settles higher on extended buying
Improved buying at the support levels by the market participants led Jeera prices to remain in green for the second consecutive day and settle 0.85% higher on Monday. Prices at the spot market also ended 0.90% higher yesterday tracking firmness in Futures.
Sowing of jeera in Rajasthan has gained momentum due to favorable weather condition. Sowing of Jeera has also commenced in some parts of Gujarat but it is on slow pace. Carryover stocks of jeera is expected to be around 9-10 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.
Prices in the global markets of Indian origin are quoting around $2,800-2,950/tn while Syrian origin is quoting at $3,100-$3,150/tn.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Unjha markets witnessed steady arrivals of 3,000 bags amidst offtakes of 3,500 bags on Monday.
Production of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 22 lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders).
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 16,000 tonnes as compared to 18,800 tonnes in 2010-11, decline of 15%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India pepper ends down on long liquidation
Lower arrivals at the domestic led Spot pepper prices to settle 0.43% higher on Monday. Prices in Futures traded firm in the early part of the trading session but long liquidation at higher levels led prices to correct and settle 0.17% lower yesterday. Reports of lower pepper crop in India in 2011-12 are expected to support pepper prices.
Lower stocks with Vietnam and Indonesia, the major suppliers of pepper till fresh arrivals commence next year (April and July respectively) will also support prices.
Indian parity in the international market was at $7,450 a tonne and remained competitive and was attracting overseas orders while Vietnam 550 gl was quoting its pepper at $7,500 per tonne.
Exports from the major countries
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 11,250 tonnes as compared to 9,250 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 22%.
According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black pepper during January to September 2011 exports of pepper from six major exporting countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka) was around 188,000 mt, 4% lower from the corresponding period of 195,000 mt.
Vietnam has reportedly sold 1.12 lakh tonnes of pepper from January to September 2011 a rise of 14% as compared to previous year.
Sharp fall of 38% in pepper exports was witnessed in Indonesia during above period. Exports stood at 26,300 tonnes as compared to 42,082 tonnes in the last year.
During Jan to Oct 2011, Brazil exported 25,331 tonnes of pepper a rise of 4.74% as compared to previous year. U.S. remained the major destination of the pepper imports.
39thsession and meeting of IPC scheduled on 22nd-26th November 2011 in Lombok Island, Indonesia
39th session of the IPC meet is scheduled on 22nd – 26th November 2011 in Indonesia and theme of the session is “Global Strategy and Innovation for Sustainable Pepper production, price and Quality”.
Production and Arrivals
Arrivals of pepper in the domestic mandi on Monday stood at 32 tonnes as compared to 10 tonnes on Saturday. Offtakes on the other hand stood at 37 tonnes.
Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 4% to 2.70 lakh tonnes with Vietnam the largest producer producing around 1.40-1.50 tonnes. Carryover stocks are projected at 50,000 tonnes as compared to 60,000 tonnes in 2011. (Source: Peppertradeboard).
While, production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to be 43 thousand tonnes according to the market sources a decline of 5% as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX soybean edges higher on firm spot demand
NCDEX December soybean futures traded higher on account of improved demand from stockiest and solvent extractors due to firm overseas market sentiments as bullish USDA’s weekly export sales report. Declining arrivals in the domestic market also provided support to the bulls. Arrivals of Soy bean currently have declined to 7 lakh bags per day as compared to 9-10 lakh bags in the beginning of the month.
USDA’s weekly export sales released on Thursday (November 17, 2011) which shows that the Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 746,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 5,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 751,200. This was higher than expected and included sales to China of 517,100 tonnes. Meal sales came in at 201,500 tonnes which was also higher than expected. Oil sales were just 2,100 tonnes which was well below expectations.
USDA’s monthly S& D report released on Wednesday (November 09, 2011) which shows slightly higher global oilseeds production estimates and higher ending stocks. Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 454.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month.
Brazil soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to 75 million.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.2 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month due to lower soybean and cottonseed production. The soybean yield is forecast at 41.3 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushels from last month.
Mustard Seed
NCDEX December RM Seed futures ended higher due to improved demand of RM seed from millers as higher prices of vegetable oil and other oilseeds.
Area under Mustard seed in the last year stood around 7.2 million ha compared to 6.4 million ha in 2009-10 season. Rajasthan government has targeted mustard acreage in 2011-12 season at 30 lakh hectares compared to 24.9 lakh ha in 2010-11 season.
As on 15th November, sowing has been completed on 78 percent of the area with total area covered so far standing around 23.55 lakh ha compare to 22.10 lakh ha same period last year.
Refine Soy Oil
NCDEX December Refined Soy oil futures traded higher in the morning hours as improved demand of edible oil due to wedding/winter season demand coupled with supply concern of palm oil due to continuous and heavy rains in Indonesia and Malaysia (la Nina weather).
Better export figures of palm oil during the first 15 days of this month also provided support to the prices. As per SGS ( a cargo surveyor), Malaysia's palm oil exports during the November 1-20, unchanged from a month earlier to 1.03 million tons.
As per another cargo surveyor (Intertek Agri Services), Malaysia's palm oil exports during the November 1-20, rose 0.6% from a month earlier.
India’s Vegetable Oil Imports:
According to Solvent Extractors Association of India, India’s import of vegetable oil in the month of October 2011 was 8.78 lakh tonnes, up 12% as compared to 7.81 lakh tonnes in October 2010.
However, from November 2010 to October 2011 (Oil Marketing year), India’s import of vegetable oil was 83.71 lakh tonnes, fell more than 5% as compared to last edible oil marketing year of 88.23 lakh tonne.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India sugar declines on poor domestic demand
After gaining by more than 4.5% during the last week, Sugar futures settled 1.17% lower on Monday on apprehension that the food ministry may push for delaying the decision on sugar exports to Dec-Jan.
Prices fell further as the meeting of the Empowered Group of Ministers on Food to discuss sugar exports and stock limits was deferred. The meeting has been deferred to Tuesday 6 pm.
Sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh have not started crushing in full swing; farmers are supplying canes to the jaggery manufacturers. Meanwhile Mills from Maharashtra have crushed 43 lakh tn sugarcane and produce 3.5 lakh tn sugar till date against 47 lakh tonnes of sugarcane and 3.9 lakh tonnes of sugar produced last year same period.
ICE Raw Sugar futures and LIFFE settled 0.27% and 0.83% higher on Monday on account of purchases by Egypt of 1.10 lakh tonnes of sugar from Brazil (Jan/ Feb shipment) and delay in decision on exports of sugar from India. Buying by Malaysia coupled with issuance of import quota by Mexico may lend support to the international prices.
The Brazil white Sugar prices have declined to $ 657 /tn last week ended 19th Nov, 2011 compared to $680-685 per tonne (FOB), in the previous week. Current offer prices stands at Rs 32900 per ton in rupee terms compared to current domestic price of Rs 31000 / tn FOB. Thus, if intl prices decline further, exports may turn unviable.
Domestic Sugar updates
Cane output in Maharashtra is expected to rise to 82.5 mn tn during 2011-12 from 80.3 mn tn last year, while sugar output is likely to increase about 2.5% to 9.3 mn tn.
Indian Sugarcane production is estimated higher by 0.9% at 342 mn tn for 2011-12 season starting October 1, 2011. ISMA has projected sugar production at 26 million tonnes for 2011-12.
With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 32 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 23 mn tn. Thus there is a wide scope for exports from India.
Global Sugar Updates
According to UNICA, Sugar production in Brazil's center-south in the second half of Oct dipped 23.5 percent from a year ago, as more mills ended crushing the 2011/12 cane crop. Sugar output totaled 1.47 million tonnes, down from 1.92 million tonnes a year earlier. Eighty-nine out of the 310 existing mills in the region had concluded crushing by Nov. 1. China, the world's largest sugar consumer, has imported 1.6 million tons of sugar in the first 11 months of 2011, with preliminary data for the full year likely to be issued around October 10.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
India chana tumbles on long liquidation
Chana futures extended losses of the previous day and settled at the lower freeze of 4% on Monday owing to long liquidation by the market participants tracking reports of better area covered under Chana in Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Spot prices also ended 2.29% lower yesterday.
There are reports that supplies in the global markets are tight. This will make imports costlier. Further, reports of lower sowing under pulses in A.P. and Karnataka due to dry spell are providing support to the prices. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, pulses have been sown in 49.75 lakh hectares as on November 18th 2011 as compared to 46.33 lakh hectares in the last year same period.
Sowing to Chana in Maharashtra was up by 64.6% to 3.4 lakh hectares as compared to 2.06 lakh hectares in the same period previous year. Area sown under Chana in Rajasthan till 18th November 2011 was 13.96 lakh hectares (lh) as compared to 10.06 lh in the same period previous year.
There are reports of decline in the output of dry peas and Chickpeas in Canada for 2011. Chickpeas output is expected to fall by 58% to 54 MT while that of peas will fall by 33% to 2 MT (Source: Agriwatch)
Pulses Imports
Imports have declined dramatically in the current FY 2011-12 with India's state-owned trading agencies having contracted imports of only 121,660 tn pulses since the beginning of the current financial year till September 12, 2011 compared with 596,700 tn during the same period last year.
Imports have been weak because domestic pulses output in 2010-11 (Jul- Jun) was at an all time high of 18.09 mln tn, up 23percent from a year ago. Also, the Centre has abolished one of the reimbursement schemes for the state-owned importing agencies.
Sowing progress and Production
Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn.
Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. If the sowing trend is maintained India may witness another bumper crop of Chana in the coming season.
According to the first advance estimates, Kharif Pulses output for 2011- 12 season is down by 9.6% at 6.43 mt. Tur output estimates is up by 0.35% while moong & Urad is down by 21% & 16% respectively. Kharif Pulses sowing is down by 9% as on 23rd September, 2011. 109.41 lakh ha has been covered against 120.3 lakh ha in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Guar seed settles higher on strong demand
Guar seed as well as Guar gum settled higher on Monday by 3.06% and 1.93% on robust demand from the millers on fears of lower output and carryover stocks.
Further, lower arrivals across Rajasthan also supported the prices to remain firm. Arrivals which had touched 95 thousand to 1 lakh bags in the first fortnight of November, have declined to 65-70 thousand bags as farmers held back their fresh produce in anticipation of higher prices.
Weaker rupee is seen gearing up exporter’s profit margin. However, export demand may hit to some extent amidst higher prices and weaker rupee.
Production
Guar seed output in Rajasthan is estimated at 11.36 lakh tonnes for 2011-12 season compared to 15.46 lakh tonnes in 2010-11 (Rajasthan Farm Dept).
Production of Guar in Haryana and Gujarat is expected to be 0.2 lakh tonnes and 0.07 lakh tonnes respectively in 2011-12.
However, there are unconfirmed reports that Guar seed output may be lower around 10 lakh tonnes compared to the government target of 11.3 lakh tonne due to excess moisture in the soil during the sowing period.
Exports
According to Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, Indian Guar gum exports for the period April- March 2010-11 surged by 84% and stood at 4,03,007 tonnes as compared to 2,18,473 tonnes during the last year.
Exports of Guar gum from April to June of the current fiscal year 2011-12 stood at 1.45 lakh tn compared to 0.71 lakh tn during the same period last year.
Exporters believe that exports which had crossed over 4 lakh tn last year, may hit this year due on financial crisis in U.S & Europe along with shift in demand. Further weaker rupee may also affect export volumes.
However the export figures clearly indicates that global crisis has not hit Guar exports as of now in the current season too.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
In addition to this, a stronger dollar also acted as a negative factor for the metal prices yesterday. However, depreciation in the Indian Rupee cushioned further losses on the Indian platform on Monday.
Nickel:
Nickel was the only base metal to witness rise in yesterday’s trade. The metal rose around 0.3 percent on the LME and around 1.2 percent on the MCX on Monday. Nickel inventories declined sharply by 1 percent to 83,940 tonnes on the LME warehouse yesterday.
China’s refined copper imports rose 74pct (y-o-y) in October According to the data from the General Administration of Customs, China's imports of refined copper increased sharply by almost 74 percent(y-o-y) to reach the level of 295,341 tonnes in the month of October and on a monthly basis, imports rose 7.2 percent in October from the previous figures of 275,499 tonnes in September.
China’s export for refined copper declined by almost 80 percent (y-o-y) to 322 tonnes in October, while the metal exports rose sharply by 516 percent (y-o-y) to 153,912 tonnes in the first ten months of 2011.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Nymex crude oil prices declined by 0.5 percent taking cues from weak market sentiments coupled with a stronger dollar.
Oil prices touched a low of $95.24/bbl and closed at $96.9/bbl yesterday. On the MCX, oil prices gained by 0.6 percent on the back of Rupee depreciation and closed at Rs.5038/bbl after touching an intra-day high of Rs.5054/bbl on Monday.
API Inventories Forecast
The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 0.5 million barrels for the week ending on 18th November 2011. Gasoline stocks are expected to increase by 1 million barrels and distillate inventories are expected to decline by 1.5 million barrels.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Gold declined sharply by 2.4 percent in yesterday’s trade, on account of dollar strength. The yellow metal touched an intra-day low of $1665/oz and closed at the level of $1681/oz on Monday.
On the MCX, Gold December contract declined around 0.6 percent as depreciation in the Indian Rupee resisted further fall on the domestic bourses and touched an intra-day low of Rs28, 339/10 gms yesterday.
Holdings in the SPDR Gold Trust, world's largest gold-backed exchange traded- fund (ETF), declined around 0.2 percent to 1,291.27 tonnes on 21st November 2011 from the previous 1293.09 tonnes on 18th November.
Silver
Taking cues from decline in gold prices, downside in base metals and dollar strength, spot silver prices slipped around 2 percent on Monday.
Silver touched an intra-day low of $30.63/oz and ended at $31.7/oz yesterday. On the MCX, Silver December contract declined around 1.8 percent and touched an intra-day low of Rs53,880/kg on Monday.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Except Nickel all other metals traded lower and ended by more than two per cent on yesterday’s trading session. Such fall was noticed owing to slump in equity markets and marginally strengthening US dollar on previous session.
Metal prices also declined taking cues from entire commodity market sell off. Surprisingly, today morning metal prices at Shanghai and London are all seen trading higher by more than one per cent. Asian equities have recovered from their early losses and currently trading marginally positive, after Moody’s and Fitch maintained their US credit scores even after the congress budget super committee failed to reach the agreement on reducing the government deficit.
Moody’s however has maintained its negative outlook and Fitch said it expects to conclude a review on the US sovereign rating by the end of month. Going ahead European equities should play out the role. Looking into the economic releases host of data are expected from US and GDP data would be one of the crucial data to watch for.
Overall, we see metal prices are moving on news based trend and more prone towards the economic development and not able to set a defined trend.
The commodity Nickel is looking positive as of now because the spot demand seems to be picking up in other word could say cancelled warrant ratios are improving that is pushing metal to move higher. However, other metals are trading in broad range for the past few sessions. Overall, we may expect metals to trade flat with a marginal upside movement.
Aluminium
Aluminium prices declined by -2.04 per cent along with lower cancelled warrant ratios suggesting the bearish trend is still intact.
There is no such major activities from industry however, in the future exchange the OI is improving along with lower price and volume suggesting the trend is still bearish.
The spread between two future contracts have declined from 0.90 to 0.60 paisa.
Copper
Although prices have declined by 2.86 per cent but the cancelled warrants ratio have improved substantially suggesting prices may show some sort of recovery in the trend in the near term.
The spread between November and February future is around Rs. 5-6 and likely to shrink in the near Term .
Lead
Lead prices fell the most by more than three per cent to settle the day at $1993 levels while at MCX Lead prices ended down by -1.05 per cent owing INR depreciation.
Cancelled warrants have improved substantially in the recent suggesting probable trend might reverse in the near term.
Nickel
Nickel was the out performer among the metal complex and ended up by 0.82 per cent at $17800 levels.
The cancelled warrant ratios are supportive for the price trend.
Zinc
Zinc prices also fell along with other metals trend and ended down by 2.54 per cent at $1915 level.
The cancelled warrant ratios are looking to be slightly improving may support this commodity to perform better in the near term.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
CHICAGO(Commodity Online): US soybean futures fell to 13-month lows as the market was caught in the tailwinds of a broad-based risk-off trading environment.
Fear of a global economic slowdown amid worries about European sovereign debt and the failure of the US supercommittee to reach agreement on a plan to help reduce the federal deficit encouraged traders to reduce risk exposure.
Technical selling accelerated the declines, with selling gathering momentum after prices dipped below last week's lows.
CBOT January soybeans end down 2 1/4c at $11.48/bushel.
Courtesy: CME Group
CHICAGO(Commodity Online): US soybean futures fell to 13-month lows as the market was caught in the tailwinds of a broad-based risk-off trading environment.
Fear of a global economic slowdown amid worries about European sovereign debt and the failure of the US supercommittee to reach agreement on a plan to help reduce the federal deficit encouraged traders to reduce risk exposure.
Technical selling accelerated the declines, with selling gathering momentum after prices dipped below last week's lows.
CBOT January soybeans end down 2 1/4c at $11.48/bushel.
Courtesy: CME Group
Maize futures remained very mixed on Monday as the arrivals and the demand played an equal role in driving the prices.
Arrivals season is limiting the steep upside while poultry sector demand for maize is preventing any steep fall in prices.
Arrivals in Davangere and Nizamabad remained stable and prices surged marginally by Rs.10/quintal on average.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
Soybean prices extended gains on Monday as the market arrivals touched 3,50,000 bags in Indore alone while the prices remained stable.
The market arrivals were reported to be much lower than last year which helped Indian prices to gain substantially.
CBOT prices ended at 13 month low as broad based sell off in the commodities affected the soybean prices. Completion of the harvesting and pressure of the total crop availability affected the prices.
Soy oil prices closed down side towards end of the day as the palm oil prices in the international markets further weakened towards closing.
At CBOT soy oil prices fell substantially due to broad based sell of in commodities and weakness in bean prices. Stumbling crude oil prices also took along the dibble oil prices and ended the day in losses.
Courtesy: Karvy Commtrade Ltd.
Winter season demand from the north Indian stockists led Spot and Futures to settle 1.17% and 0.04% higher on Monday. There are some reports of crop damage in A.P due to in adequate rainfall in the month of October. Crop damage would be around 10%. This is likely to provide support to the prices.
Sharp gains may however be capped on account of sufficient availability of Turmeric in the major mandis.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Arrivals in Nizamabad stood at 1,000 bags while Erode market witnessed arrivals of 8,000 bags on Monday.
Turmeric production for the year 2011-12 is projected at 82 lakh bags (1 bag= 70 kgs) compared to 69 lakh bags in 2010-11. However, area covered under turmeric till 21st September 2011 stood at 0.67 lakh ha 2.9% lower as compared to 0.69 lakh ha in the previous year.
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Turmeric during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 41,500 tonnes as compared to 28,500 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 46%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Improved buying at the support levels by the market participants led Jeera prices to remain in green for the second consecutive day and settle 0.85% higher on Monday. Prices at the spot market also ended 0.90% higher yesterday tracking firmness in Futures.
Sowing of jeera in Rajasthan has gained momentum due to favorable weather condition. Sowing of Jeera has also commenced in some parts of Gujarat but it is on slow pace. Carryover stocks of jeera is expected to be around 9-10 lakh bags as compared to 4-5 lakh bags in the last year.
Prices in the global markets of Indian origin are quoting around $2,800-2,950/tn while Syrian origin is quoting at $3,100-$3,150/tn.
Production, Arrivals and Exports
Unjha markets witnessed steady arrivals of 3,000 bags amidst offtakes of 3,500 bags on Monday.
Production of jeera in Gujarat and Rajasthan in 2011 was around 22 lakh bags and 7-8 lakh bags respectively. (Each bag weighs 55 kgs). (Source: spot market traders).
According to Spices Board of India, exports of Jeera during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 16,000 tonnes as compared to 18,800 tonnes in 2010-11, decline of 15%.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Lower arrivals at the domestic led Spot pepper prices to settle 0.43% higher on Monday. Prices in Futures traded firm in the early part of the trading session but long liquidation at higher levels led prices to correct and settle 0.17% lower yesterday. Reports of lower pepper crop in India in 2011-12 are expected to support pepper prices.
Lower stocks with Vietnam and Indonesia, the major suppliers of pepper till fresh arrivals commence next year (April and July respectively) will also support prices.
Indian parity in the international market was at $7,450 a tonne and remained competitive and was attracting overseas orders while Vietnam 550 gl was quoting its pepper at $7,500 per tonne.
Exports from the major countries
According to Spices Board of India, exports of pepper during April 2011- September 2011 stood at 11,250 tonnes as compared to 9,250 tonnes in 2010-11, rise of 22%.
According to International Pepper Community (IPC) exports of black pepper during January to September 2011 exports of pepper from six major exporting countries (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Sri Lanka) was around 188,000 mt, 4% lower from the corresponding period of 195,000 mt.
Vietnam has reportedly sold 1.12 lakh tonnes of pepper from January to September 2011 a rise of 14% as compared to previous year.
Sharp fall of 38% in pepper exports was witnessed in Indonesia during above period. Exports stood at 26,300 tonnes as compared to 42,082 tonnes in the last year.
During Jan to Oct 2011, Brazil exported 25,331 tonnes of pepper a rise of 4.74% as compared to previous year. U.S. remained the major destination of the pepper imports.
39thsession and meeting of IPC scheduled on 22nd-26th November 2011 in Lombok Island, Indonesia
39th session of the IPC meet is scheduled on 22nd – 26th November 2011 in Indonesia and theme of the session is “Global Strategy and Innovation for Sustainable Pepper production, price and Quality”.
Production and Arrivals
Arrivals of pepper in the domestic mandi on Monday stood at 32 tonnes as compared to 10 tonnes on Saturday. Offtakes on the other hand stood at 37 tonnes.
Global Pepper production in 2012 is expected to increase 4% to 2.70 lakh tonnes with Vietnam the largest producer producing around 1.40-1.50 tonnes. Carryover stocks are projected at 50,000 tonnes as compared to 60,000 tonnes in 2011. (Source: Peppertradeboard).
While, production of pepper in India in 2011-12 is expected to be 43 thousand tonnes according to the market sources a decline of 5% as compared to 48 thousand tonnes in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
NCDEX December soybean futures traded higher on account of improved demand from stockiest and solvent extractors due to firm overseas market sentiments as bullish USDA’s weekly export sales report. Declining arrivals in the domestic market also provided support to the bulls. Arrivals of Soy bean currently have declined to 7 lakh bags per day as compared to 9-10 lakh bags in the beginning of the month.
USDA’s weekly export sales released on Thursday (November 17, 2011) which shows that the Weekly export sales for soybeans came in at 746,100 metric tonnes for the current marketing year and 5,100 for the next marketing year for a total of 751,200. This was higher than expected and included sales to China of 517,100 tonnes. Meal sales came in at 201,500 tonnes which was also higher than expected. Oil sales were just 2,100 tonnes which was well below expectations.
USDA’s monthly S& D report released on Wednesday (November 09, 2011) which shows slightly higher global oilseeds production estimates and higher ending stocks. Global oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 454.8 million tons, up 1.3 million tons from last month.
Brazil soybean production is increased 1.5 million tons to 75 million.
Total U.S. oilseed production for 2011/12 is projected at 91.2 million tons, down 0.5 million from last month due to lower soybean and cottonseed production. The soybean yield is forecast at 41.3 bushels per acre, down 0.2 bushels from last month.
Mustard Seed
NCDEX December RM Seed futures ended higher due to improved demand of RM seed from millers as higher prices of vegetable oil and other oilseeds.
Area under Mustard seed in the last year stood around 7.2 million ha compared to 6.4 million ha in 2009-10 season. Rajasthan government has targeted mustard acreage in 2011-12 season at 30 lakh hectares compared to 24.9 lakh ha in 2010-11 season.
As on 15th November, sowing has been completed on 78 percent of the area with total area covered so far standing around 23.55 lakh ha compare to 22.10 lakh ha same period last year.
Refine Soy Oil
NCDEX December Refined Soy oil futures traded higher in the morning hours as improved demand of edible oil due to wedding/winter season demand coupled with supply concern of palm oil due to continuous and heavy rains in Indonesia and Malaysia (la Nina weather).
Better export figures of palm oil during the first 15 days of this month also provided support to the prices. As per SGS ( a cargo surveyor), Malaysia's palm oil exports during the November 1-20, unchanged from a month earlier to 1.03 million tons.
As per another cargo surveyor (Intertek Agri Services), Malaysia's palm oil exports during the November 1-20, rose 0.6% from a month earlier.
India’s Vegetable Oil Imports:
According to Solvent Extractors Association of India, India’s import of vegetable oil in the month of October 2011 was 8.78 lakh tonnes, up 12% as compared to 7.81 lakh tonnes in October 2010.
However, from November 2010 to October 2011 (Oil Marketing year), India’s import of vegetable oil was 83.71 lakh tonnes, fell more than 5% as compared to last edible oil marketing year of 88.23 lakh tonne.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
After gaining by more than 4.5% during the last week, Sugar futures settled 1.17% lower on Monday on apprehension that the food ministry may push for delaying the decision on sugar exports to Dec-Jan.
Prices fell further as the meeting of the Empowered Group of Ministers on Food to discuss sugar exports and stock limits was deferred. The meeting has been deferred to Tuesday 6 pm.
Sugar mills in Uttar Pradesh have not started crushing in full swing; farmers are supplying canes to the jaggery manufacturers. Meanwhile Mills from Maharashtra have crushed 43 lakh tn sugarcane and produce 3.5 lakh tn sugar till date against 47 lakh tonnes of sugarcane and 3.9 lakh tonnes of sugar produced last year same period.
ICE Raw Sugar futures and LIFFE settled 0.27% and 0.83% higher on Monday on account of purchases by Egypt of 1.10 lakh tonnes of sugar from Brazil (Jan/ Feb shipment) and delay in decision on exports of sugar from India. Buying by Malaysia coupled with issuance of import quota by Mexico may lend support to the international prices.
The Brazil white Sugar prices have declined to $ 657 /tn last week ended 19th Nov, 2011 compared to $680-685 per tonne (FOB), in the previous week. Current offer prices stands at Rs 32900 per ton in rupee terms compared to current domestic price of Rs 31000 / tn FOB. Thus, if intl prices decline further, exports may turn unviable.
Domestic Sugar updates
Cane output in Maharashtra is expected to rise to 82.5 mn tn during 2011-12 from 80.3 mn tn last year, while sugar output is likely to increase about 2.5% to 9.3 mn tn.
Indian Sugarcane production is estimated higher by 0.9% at 342 mn tn for 2011-12 season starting October 1, 2011. ISMA has projected sugar production at 26 million tonnes for 2011-12.
With the opening stocks of 6 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at 32 mn tn against the domestic consumption of around 23 mn tn. Thus there is a wide scope for exports from India.
Global Sugar Updates
According to UNICA, Sugar production in Brazil's center-south in the second half of Oct dipped 23.5 percent from a year ago, as more mills ended crushing the 2011/12 cane crop. Sugar output totaled 1.47 million tonnes, down from 1.92 million tonnes a year earlier. Eighty-nine out of the 310 existing mills in the region had concluded crushing by Nov. 1. China, the world's largest sugar consumer, has imported 1.6 million tons of sugar in the first 11 months of 2011, with preliminary data for the full year likely to be issued around October 10.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Chana futures extended losses of the previous day and settled at the lower freeze of 4% on Monday owing to long liquidation by the market participants tracking reports of better area covered under Chana in Rajasthan and Maharashtra. Spot prices also ended 2.29% lower yesterday.
There are reports that supplies in the global markets are tight. This will make imports costlier. Further, reports of lower sowing under pulses in A.P. and Karnataka due to dry spell are providing support to the prices. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, pulses have been sown in 49.75 lakh hectares as on November 18th 2011 as compared to 46.33 lakh hectares in the last year same period.
Sowing to Chana in Maharashtra was up by 64.6% to 3.4 lakh hectares as compared to 2.06 lakh hectares in the same period previous year. Area sown under Chana in Rajasthan till 18th November 2011 was 13.96 lakh hectares (lh) as compared to 10.06 lh in the same period previous year.
There are reports of decline in the output of dry peas and Chickpeas in Canada for 2011. Chickpeas output is expected to fall by 58% to 54 MT while that of peas will fall by 33% to 2 MT (Source: Agriwatch)
Pulses Imports
Imports have declined dramatically in the current FY 2011-12 with India's state-owned trading agencies having contracted imports of only 121,660 tn pulses since the beginning of the current financial year till September 12, 2011 compared with 596,700 tn during the same period last year.
Imports have been weak because domestic pulses output in 2010-11 (Jul- Jun) was at an all time high of 18.09 mln tn, up 23percent from a year ago. Also, the Centre has abolished one of the reimbursement schemes for the state-owned importing agencies.
Sowing progress and Production
Indian government is targeting total pulses output of 17 mln tn in the current crop year that started July 2011, down marginally from last year's record production of 18.09 mln tn.
Chana is the main Rabi Pulse crop grown in India, sowing of which is done during October-December, and harvesting begins in January. If the sowing trend is maintained India may witness another bumper crop of Chana in the coming season.
According to the first advance estimates, Kharif Pulses output for 2011- 12 season is down by 9.6% at 6.43 mt. Tur output estimates is up by 0.35% while moong & Urad is down by 21% & 16% respectively. Kharif Pulses sowing is down by 9% as on 23rd September, 2011. 109.41 lakh ha has been covered against 120.3 lakh ha in the last year.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities
Guar seed as well as Guar gum settled higher on Monday by 3.06% and 1.93% on robust demand from the millers on fears of lower output and carryover stocks.
Further, lower arrivals across Rajasthan also supported the prices to remain firm. Arrivals which had touched 95 thousand to 1 lakh bags in the first fortnight of November, have declined to 65-70 thousand bags as farmers held back their fresh produce in anticipation of higher prices.
Weaker rupee is seen gearing up exporter’s profit margin. However, export demand may hit to some extent amidst higher prices and weaker rupee.
Production
Guar seed output in Rajasthan is estimated at 11.36 lakh tonnes for 2011-12 season compared to 15.46 lakh tonnes in 2010-11 (Rajasthan Farm Dept).
Production of Guar in Haryana and Gujarat is expected to be 0.2 lakh tonnes and 0.07 lakh tonnes respectively in 2011-12.
However, there are unconfirmed reports that Guar seed output may be lower around 10 lakh tonnes compared to the government target of 11.3 lakh tonne due to excess moisture in the soil during the sowing period.
Exports
According to Agriculture and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority, Indian Guar gum exports for the period April- March 2010-11 surged by 84% and stood at 4,03,007 tonnes as compared to 2,18,473 tonnes during the last year.
Exports of Guar gum from April to June of the current fiscal year 2011-12 stood at 1.45 lakh tn compared to 0.71 lakh tn during the same period last year.
Exporters believe that exports which had crossed over 4 lakh tn last year, may hit this year due on financial crisis in U.S & Europe along with shift in demand. Further weaker rupee may also affect export volumes.
However the export figures clearly indicates that global crisis has not hit Guar exports as of now in the current season too.
Courtesy: Angel Commodities